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[Meme] Sh*t Real Estate Agents Say
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, February 7, 2012, 11:30 AM
What would an internet meme be without Realtor introspection provided by Realtors themselves? HT to The Real Estate Bloggers and it’s creators at RETSO. [Appraisal Stories] Aversion to Turtle Soup Prompted Mold Lawsuit
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, February 7, 2012, 10:00 AM
A number of years ago, my appraisal firm provided an appraisal for the purchase of a few thousand square foot loft in a new gut rehab conversion in downtown Manhattan. This Inman article on “Homes were reptiles roam” triggered my memory of this story, of which the details are a little fuzzy due to the time that has passed. Still, it’s worth sharing since it’s so bizarre. Our firm was served a subpoena indicating we complicit in the newly discovered “mold” problem in the condo unit. I should point out that the developer, bank, mortgage broker, real estate broker, attorneys on both sides and others were also subject to the same lawsuit. We reviewed the appraisal and did not understand why the buyer was coming after all of us. The unit was gut renovated and never occupied at the time of the inspection. We did not observe anything unusual. Our attorney called on our behalf and got the story. The case was soon thrown out before we had to provide anything. The story goes like this:
Note: redacted to protect the guilty/innocent Calculated Risk Goes All In – Housing Market Will Bottom In March 2012
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, February 7, 2012, 6:30 AM
Barry Ritholtz of Big Picture does a nice narrative on why housing isn’t done falling. I agree with him and I’ll point additional few other things that aren’t mentioned.
But first, in a super macro perspective, Bill McBride of Calculated Risk predicts a housing bottom for March 2012. Like The Big Picture, Calculated Risk is required econ reading, and Bill takes exception to Barry’s view that the market has further to fall – the idea that the housing market needs to overcorrect (it always does). To be clear, Bill’s forecast is based on prices of the key housing indices i.e. Case Shiller and CoreLogic without seasonal or inflation adjustments. He is very clear about the definition of a housing bottom which is key to the argument – in fact, there are two housing bottoms: First there are two bottoms for housing. The first is for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. The second bottom is for prices. Sometimes these bottoms can happen years apart.
He provides a logical argument but I think he’s missing a key ingredient in the logic – how will the market be impacted by distressed properties and how they will impact the price trend:
In other words, the call of a bottom is missing a huge element from the equation – supply. The forecast of a housing bottom could certainly be right in the short term, and housing prices could bottom in March temporarily, but there is a lot of excess supply to be dealt with and I suspect that prices will begin to slide as REO activity begins to slowly enter the market. It simply has to – there is too much of it. No gloom and doom here, just that the market still has a lot of distressed inventory to absorb. Distressed real estate (foreclosure) volume has fallen by about one third in 2011 as lenders/servicers held back releasing more units into the market largely because of the “robo-signing” scandal in late 2010 and the potential AG settlement that has been languishing for much of the year. The housing market got an REO reprieve in 2011 and has caused housing bulls to get ahead of themselves and the housing market, way too focused on demand, and not enough focus on supply. UPDATE – Noah at Urbandigs.com chimes in: Social Media Explained (In Donuts)
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 6, 2012, 5:00 PM
This was shared with me today via twitter @gabrielfreedom and it just clicked – the best explanation ever made for the various social media tools out there – using a sweeeeeeet analogy – donuts.
[Public Speaking] The Future of Residential Real Estate in NYC: NYLS/Center for Real Estate Studies 2-28-12
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 6, 2012, 1:43 PM
Looking forward to my third consecutive annual appearance as a keynote speaker for the Center for Real Estate at New York Law School. Professor of Law and Director of the Center Andrew Berman hosts a great event.
[Superbowl Ad] It’s Halftime In America
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 6, 2012, 9:36 AM
So Clint Eastwood is one of my all-time favorite actors, most recently in Gran Torino (curiously a Ford), my wife’s family hails from Detroit and I’ve always wanted a car with a Hemi engine, but besides all that, this was my favorite commercial of the Superbowl. I like the symbolism that the country needs to regroup and the game isn’t over yet (yes I realize that Fiat has a 58.5% ownership stake in Chrysler but please let me bask in the glow). A lot of negativity to churn through in the coming years because many people are hurting financially. [Closure?] NY A.G. Sues MERS For Being An End Around
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 6, 2012, 9:18 AM
Last week there was plenty of outrage from the directed at Freddie Mac who was found to have been betting against homeowners who were stuck with higher interest rates. They claimed there was a firewall and that they stopped the practice before FHFA, their regulator, told them to – but that wasn’t the point. It’s an unconscionable action from that institution. FHFA, was once again late to the party (think housing boom and accounting scandal, of formerly named OFHEO). Now a government owned financial institution who is critical to the US housing mortgage market was betting against the US homeowner in conflict of their charter. In President Obama’s SOTU speech, he announced creation of an office to prosecute those who violated the law related to the housing bubble. The initial reaction of many, including myself was “where were you 3 years ago?” as if this action was too late. The Freddie Mac debacle and now the MERS lawsuit reestablishes that it is not too late. Without due process, faith in the US financial system will not be repaired. It has long been held that MERS was merely a clever way to avoid local filing fees and enable rapid transaction of complex financial instruments. As much as it seems like we are rehashing the past, a sense of justice is missing from national dialog about the aftermath of the housing boom. I am counting on NY AG Schneiderman to help us feel better about what is right and wrong, no matter how far after the fact. [Living The High Life] How Much Is It Worth?
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 6, 2012, 6:30 AM
My friend Teri Rogers founder of BrickUnderground described by the New York Times (she used to write for their real estate section) as a provider of practical advice for apartment living in New York, pens a column in amNY. She reached out to me on the topic of valuing views and floor levels.
Buying Manhattan Apartments With Gold
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Sunday, February 5, 2012, 3:32 PM
Last year I got an email from a Matrix reader, Ben Tanen, a former VC now running his own investment partnership that invests in public companies, with an interesting take on the buying power of gold as it relates to Manhattan apartments. Like many things in my life, I let this “nugget” (sorry) slip through the cracks last year. He recently updated it with our new numbers in the recent release and it’s quite compelling. The value of gold has risen sharply in recent years during the wobbling of the global financial markets – investors see precious metals like gold as a way of preserving purchasing power over the long run. In fact, in 2011, gold had more purchasing power relative to Manhattan real estate than at anytime during the past 22 years (the limit of our publicly released data). It would take 908 ounces of gold to purchase the average Manhattan apartment versus the 1996 low point of 1,030 ounces, a point where many think our asset bubble problems began (stocks, then housing). [In The Media] Guest Co-hosting With Tom Keene on Bloomberg Midday Surveillance 2-2-12
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, February 3, 2012, 10:44 AM
Had a lot of fun with Tom Keene, Bloomberg’s editor-at-large, radio and TV anchor on his must watch show Midday Surveillance yesterday. Always flattering to be asked to guest co-host for the hour and a challenge to keep up with his fast paced wit. I’ve always felt that Bloomberg news, now with new emphasis on TV is business news the way it should be delivered – longer interviews and neutral presentations. The show’s theme was housing and I felt compelled to give him more reasons to hand-wring about his upcoming apartment rent increase. Was fun to do. The hour was divided into 4 segments, the last three with guests:
Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday.” |
 10/06/2011 [Interview PART II] Barry Ritholtz, CEO, Director of Equity Research, Fusion IQ, Author, Bailout Nation, The Big Picture Blog02/07/2012 [Superbowl Ad] It’s Halftime In AmericaSo Clint Eastwood is one of my all-time favorite actors, most recently in Gran Torino (curiously a Ford), my wife’s family hails from Detroit and I’ve always wanted a car with a Hemi engine, but besides all that, this was... Read More Vortex |
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