Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, October 10, 2011, 3:41 PM
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Well it has been a full year of the grand experiment but all good things must come to an end, or as said in my favorite movie The Matrix: “everything that has a beginning, must have an end.”
or…
When an appraiser stops analyzing a market, does it make a sound? –Henry David Thoreau [interpreted and adjusted]
In looking back at the year, I am most proud of creating a pending home sales index (for DC and Baltimore metro) helping leverage their rich data set.
In fact, I’d have to say that as a result of this index, MRIS/RBI provides the most timely market metric for residential real estate in the country. That’s why I was prompted to write this post – they released their first edition of the PHSI post-Jonathan Miller for Baltimore and DC. I’m not sure what they plan to do with the report going forward but I had nothing to do with the current version which is loosely based on the template I created. The report still has the same great raw data.
I really developed some great relationships and friendships in the region and plan to continue to follow the market. I still find it amazing that pundits for region continue to be national reporting service representatives like Case Shiller and CoreLogic – compared to NYC metro where the coverage is at a much higher density but from a local level. I’m guessing Washington politics is simply more important to news outlets than real estate coverage.
Here are some quotes from some of the media well wishers that I interacted with.
Hey Jonathan,
Although I got the heads up that this was on it’s way, it still comes as a jolt! Your analysis and insight will truly be missed down here. Of course, we will stay in touch and please let me know how we can help….
+
Thank you so much for your very acute insights over the last year! ….I wish you well in all your future ventures! And I’m certainly keeping your contact info.
+
sniff
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Sorry to hear that, though I’m glad you’ll still be watching
the market.
It’s been a great run and I deeply cherished and appreciated the experience working with MRIS/RBI. I learned a lot and felt great about the insight I provided. Although I grew up in the region and have a good feel for it, I have long since lost my DMV accent. I have to say that MRIS and RBI have some of the smartest people I’ve ever met and have the cleanest data I’ve ever seen for any housing market in the country. I wish both organizations and the individuals I have met all the best.
Ok, back to work.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, September 12, 2011, 1:52 PM
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[click to open release]
Today we released the RBI Pending Home Sales Index for both Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metro area housing markets for RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), the research, analytics arm of MRIS, the largest MLS in the country. It is released 10 days after the close of each period (the 12th this month because of the weekend), about 3 weeks before the NAR Pending Home Sale Index and 182 days before the Case Shiller Home Price Index covering the same period.
Here’s an excerpt from the just released August 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index [Washington, D.C. Metro Area] report:
…The last month of summer provided an unusual amount of economic uncertainty caused by the S&P downgrade of U.S. debt after July’s raucous political debates on the debt ceiling. There was a widely held expectation that consumers would delay their home purchases until they felt more comfortable with the impact to the economy. For the Washington, D.C. metro area, there was no apparent impact on the volume of new pending sales beyond seasonal patterns. There were 4,169 contracts signed in August 2011, 8.6% less than the 4,563 contracts signed in July, consistent with the 5-year 9% average month-over-month decline and the ten year 7.5% average month-over-month decline. The monthly total was the highest number of August signed contracts in 4 years. New pending sales were 19.9% above the August 2010 level but that increase is exaggerated due to the dearth of activity in the months following the expiration of the federal homebuyers tax credit in April 2010. The median sales price for August 2011 showed a similar seasonal pattern, declining 3.8% to $356,000 from $370,000 in July 2011 but was essentially unchanged from August 2011. Median sales price has averaged a 3.6% month-over-month decline over 5 years and a 2.2% month-over-month decline over ten years…
RBI Pending Home Sales Index™ [Washington, D.C. Metro Area]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, August 31, 2011, 9:32 PM
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Ok, so Irene has left the building but so has most of our electrical power. As of this post, my town in CT is down to 39% remaining without power (includes my house) and 25% of homes in the entire state are without power – that’s 310,661 homes or less than 1/10 the number that watched the Weather Channel during Irene.
We were blessed with at least 2 national market reports this week which I examined over at MRIS Blog:
S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index: S&P/Case Shiller: Seasons Don’t Exist In Housing Market?
The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index was released today reflecting the average of April-May-June closings which likely went to contract as early as January-February-March when the housing market began to wake up after a post-tax credit slumber in the second half of 2010. [read more]
NAR Pending Home Sale Index: NAR pendings released today (RBI release was 19 days ago); Fell 1st time in 3 months
The NAR released its national pending home sales index on re-sales today covering the same period (warning: gloat) we released the RealEstate Business Intelligence‘s RBI Pending Home Sales Index for Washington, D.C. Metro and Baltimore Metro back on August 10th. [read more]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, August 10, 2011, 12:28 PM
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[click to open release]
Today we released the RBI Pending Home Sales Index for both Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metro area housing markets for RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), the research, analytics arm of MRIS, the largest MLS in the country. It is released 10 days after the close of each period, about 3 weeks before the NAR Pending Home Sale Index and 182 days before the Case Shiller Home Price Index covering the same period.
Here’s an excerpt from the just released July 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index [Washington, D.C. Metro Area] report:
The number of contracts signed for the month of July fell 10.9% from June, a larger decline than the 7.5% ten year average. While month-over-month contract activity tends to decline in July, the debt ceiling debate dominating media coverage for most of the month probably caused consumers to pause before making a purchase decision. Even with the hesitation, new pending sales reached their highest June total in six years. The 29.3% year-over-year July increase in pending sales activity was a result of last year’s lull in market activity in the months that followed the April 2010 contract signing deadline to qualify for the federal homebuyer tax credit. Median sales price slipped in July to $370,000, consistent with seasonal patterns after reaching a three year high of $379,990 in June. …
RBI Pending Home Sales Index™ [Washington, D.C. Metro Area]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, July 11, 2011, 9:56 PM
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[click to open release]
Today we released the RBI Pending Home Sales Index for both Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metro area housing markets for RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), the research, analytics arm of MRIS, the largest MLS in the country. It is released 10 days after the close of each period, about 3 weeks before the NAR Pending Home Sale Index and 182 days before the Case Shiller Home Price Index covering the same period.
Here’s an excerpt from the just released June 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index [Washington, D.C. Metro Area] report:
…Pending home sales continued their return to more consistent historical patterns, while reaching their highest June total in 6 years. The 6.9% month-over-month decline in contract signings was consistent with the 5.2% monthly decline averaged over the prior decade. The 29.5% year-over-year June increase in pending sales activity was due to the comparison with last year’s post-tax credit drop in activity, not a current surge in demand. With the expansion of new contract activity in 2011, median sales price continued to rise in June reaching $379,990, its highest level since July 2008 and was 7.3% above June 2010 and 7.5% above May 2011…
RBI Pending Home Sales Index™ [Washington, D.C. Metro Area]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, June 9, 2011, 7:44 PM
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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed DC, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in our Nation’s capitol.
…There has been a lot of “double dip” talk of late, far removed from the “double flip” conversations prevalent during mid-decade. I wanted peel back the distressed layer of the DMV onion and take a look. I define “distressed sales” as short sales and REO properties (foreclosures). Nationally, distressed sales are the key to understanding the US housing market and the headlines we read every month – DC Metro is no exception. When all sale types are lumped into one big pile (of onions), it can be hard (or impossible) to decipher the housing market without some serious bad breath…
Three Cents Worth: Discussing DMV’s Distressed Sales Requires A Few Breath Mints
[Click to expand and read full post on Curbed DC]
Curbed DC Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed NY Three Cents Worth Archive
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, May 10, 2011, 11:34 AM
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[click to open release]
I am reporting on the Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metro area housing markets in addition to our NYC metro area and Miami research – for RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), the research, analytics arm of MRIS, the largest MLS in the country. It is released 10 days after the close of each period, about 3 weeks before the NAR pending home sale index covering the same period.
Here’s a snippet from the just released April 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index [Washington, D.C. Metro Area] report:
…April buyers and sellers in the Washington, D.C. metro area signed 5,170 purchase contracts, the second highest April since 2006. The total was second only to the April 2010 surge in activity related to the final days of the federal homebuyer tax credit. Pending sales in April fell to 5,170, 4.8% short of the heavy volume reached in March, partly a result of last monthÕs release of pent-up demand accumulated during the post-tax credit expiration lull in the second half of 2010. The April 2011 median sales price was $334,000, nominally below $335,000 reached in same month last year and 4.4% above $320,000 in March. The month over month increase was consistent with seasonal patterns…
RBI Pending Home Sales Index™ [Washington, D.C. Metro Area]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, April 29, 2011, 11:30 AM
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[click to expand]
NAR’s March 2011 Pending Home Sale Index was released and touted as having (obviously) good results.
….a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 5.1 percent to 94.1 in March from a downwardly revised 89.5 in February. The index is 11.4 percent below 106.2 in March 2010; however, activity was at elevated levels in March and April of 2010 to meet the contract deadline for the home buyer tax credit.
[ongoing correction-pet peeve: it is NOT forward looking, it is current looking. Forward only in the context of closings which lag]
In reality the pending home sale index, because of last year’s tex credit skew, should use the non-seasonally adjusted results. Last year at this time the sales were wildly skewed higher than they should (red line). Later this year NAR will likely have to grapple with declining sales caused by last year’s wild skew downward.
The sharp jump in the M-O-M number is more about returning to a more reasonable level of activity than suggesting some sort of boom. The exaggerated jump was because sales in the second half of the year were artificially low (artificially high in the first half of the year.
The pending home sales indices I created for Washington, DC and Baltimore cover the same period but were release 18 days before the NAR report and show the same phenomenon.
Pending Home Sale Index March 2011 Press Release [NAR]
Pending Home Sale Index March 2011 Chart [NAR]
Pending Home Sales Index Baltimore Metro Area [RBI]
Pending Home Sales Index Washington, DC Metro Area [RBI]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, April 11, 2011, 10:00 AM
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[click to open release]
I am reporting on the DC and Baltimore metro area housing markets in addition to our NYC metro area market research – for RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), the research, analytics arm of MRIS, the largest MLS in the country.
Using the robust data RBI manages for its customers, I created a pending home sale index for the both the Baltimore and Washington, DC metro area housing markets that is released 10 days after the close of each period, about 3 weeks before the NAR pending home sale index covering the same period.
Here is one of the key results of the April 10th 2011 Washington, DC report:
Pending home sales surge to highest March total since 2007, just above the decade average. There were 2,857 signed contracts between buyers and sellers in March, 33.1% more than were signed in February and 3.2% more than were signed in March 2010. Pending sales activity at this time last year was fueled by the nearing expiration of the federal homebuyers tax credit the following month. The expiration of the credit led to depressed sales activity for the balance of 2010. The recent jump in pending sales activity has the potential to stabilize prices during the spring.
RBI Pending Home Sales Index™ [Washington, DC Metro Area] [Web]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, March 30, 2011, 10:27 PM
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I’ve been slammed as of late and Matrix has been dark for a week and a half – good grief – it pains me – what better way to come back to blogging than to have an energetic interview with Tom. Always fun.
BTW, I’m now the mayor of the Bloomberg HQ cafeteria on Foursquare.
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