Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, October 10, 2011, 3:41 PM
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Well it has been a full year of the grand experiment but all good things must come to an end, or as said in my favorite movie The Matrix: “everything that has a beginning, must have an end.”
or…
When an appraiser stops analyzing a market, does it make a sound? –Henry David Thoreau [interpreted and adjusted]
In looking back at the year, I am most proud of creating a pending home sales index (for DC and Baltimore metro) helping leverage their rich data set.
In fact, I’d have to say that as a result of this index, MRIS/RBI provides the most timely market metric for residential real estate in the country. That’s why I was prompted to write this post – they released their first edition of the PHSI post-Jonathan Miller for Baltimore and DC. I’m not sure what they plan to do with the report going forward but I had nothing to do with the current version which is loosely based on the template I created. The report still has the same great raw data.
I really developed some great relationships and friendships in the region and plan to continue to follow the market. I still find it amazing that pundits for region continue to be national reporting service representatives like Case Shiller and CoreLogic – compared to NYC metro where the coverage is at a much higher density but from a local level. I’m guessing Washington politics is simply more important to news outlets than real estate coverage.
Here are some quotes from some of the media well wishers that I interacted with.
Hey Jonathan,
Although I got the heads up that this was on it’s way, it still comes as a jolt! Your analysis and insight will truly be missed down here. Of course, we will stay in touch and please let me know how we can help….
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Thank you so much for your very acute insights over the last year! ….I wish you well in all your future ventures! And I’m certainly keeping your contact info.
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sniff
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Sorry to hear that, though I’m glad you’ll still be watching
the market.
It’s been a great run and I deeply cherished and appreciated the experience working with MRIS/RBI. I learned a lot and felt great about the insight I provided. Although I grew up in the region and have a good feel for it, I have long since lost my DMV accent. I have to say that MRIS and RBI have some of the smartest people I’ve ever met and have the cleanest data I’ve ever seen for any housing market in the country. I wish both organizations and the individuals I have met all the best.
Ok, back to work.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, September 12, 2011, 2:02 PM
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[click to open release]
Today we released the RBI Pending Home Sales Index for both Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metro area housing markets for RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), the research, analytics arm of MRIS, the largest MLS in the country. It is released 10 days after the close of each period (today it was on the 12th since the 10th fell on the weekend), about 3 weeks before the NAR Pending Home Sale Index and 182 days before the Case Shiller Home Price Index covering the same period.
Here’s an excerpt from the just released August 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index [Baltimore Metro Area] report:
….Baltimore area home sales enjoyed their best August in five years as buyers took advantage of affordable prices and record low interest rates. While August pending sales of 2,365 was 1.7% below the July 2011 total of 2,407, the current decline was well below the 6.9% average month-over-month decline of the past 5 years and the 4% average month-over-month decline of the past ten years. Median sales price also outpaced seasonal patterns, rising 4.4% to $235,000 in August from $225,000 in the July . For the past ten years, median sales price has slipped an average of 0.5% from July to August…
August 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index™ [Baltimore Metro Area]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, August 10, 2011, 12:37 PM
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[click to open release]
Today we released the RBI Pending Home Sales Index for both Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metro area housing markets for RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), the research, analytics arm of MRIS, the largest MLS in the country. It is released 10 days after the close of each period, about 3 weeks before the NAR Pending Home Sale Index and 182 days before the Case Shiller Home Price Index covering the same period.
Here’s an excerpt from the just released July 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index [Baltimore Metro Area] report:
…. There were 2,407 signed contracts in July, the most since 2007. Market activity was 6.9% below the June total of 2,585 and 24.5% above the 1,934 total in the same month a year ago. The jump from the prior year total was due to the lull in the market in the months following the April 30, 2010 contract signing deadline for the federal homebuyer tax credit and therefore overstates the improvement in the market. The average June to July seasonal decline for the past five and ten years was 3% and 3.5%, roughly half the market decline seen this year in the same period. The likely cause of the larger than normal decline was a consumer pause during the heated Washington DC debt ceiling debate for most of month…
July 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index™ [Baltimore Metro Area]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, July 11, 2011, 9:37 PM
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[click to open release]
Today we released the RBI Pending Home Sales Index for both Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metro area housing markets for RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), the research, analytics arm of MRIS, the largest MLS in the country. It is released 10 days after the close of each period, about 3 weeks before the NAR Pending Home Sale Index and 182 days before the Case Shiller Home Price Index covering the same period.
Here’s an excerpt from the just released June 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index [Baltimore Metro Area] report:
…There were 2,712 signed contracts in the Baltimore metro area for the month of April, 21.8% below the tax credit-fueled surge of 3,466 in the same month last year in the waning moments of the federal stimulus program and 5.1% below the 2,857 total of the prior month. April pending sales did not keep pace with March pending sales largely due to last month’s release of pent-up demand from the lull in activity in the second half of 2010 caused by the expiration of the tax credit last spring. The April 2011 median sales price was $215,000, 6.5% less than $230,000 in April 2010 but 7.5% above $200,000 in the prior month. The first four months of 2011 resulted in the four lowest monthly median sales prices for the region since January 2005…
June 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index™ [Baltimore Metro Area]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, May 10, 2011, 11:40 AM
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[click to open release]
I am reporting on the Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metro area housing markets in addition to our NYC metro area and Miami research – for RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), the research, analytics arm of MRIS, the largest MLS in the country. It is released 10 days after the close of each period, about 3 weeks before the NAR pending home sale index covering the same period.
Here’s a snippet from the just released April 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index [Baltimore Metro Area] report:
…There were 2,712 signed contracts in the Baltimore metro area for the month of April, 21.8% below the tax credit-fueled surge of 3,466 in the same month last year in the waning moments of the federal stimulus program and 5.1% below the 2,857 total of the prior month. April pending sales did not keep pace with March pending sales largely due to last month’s release of pent-up demand from the lull in activity in the second half of 2010 caused by the expiration of the tax credit last spring. The April 2011 median sales price was $215,000, 6.5% less than $230,000 in April 2010 but 7.5% above $200,000 in the prior month. The first four months of 2011 resulted in the four lowest monthly median sales prices for the region since January 2005…
RBI Pending Home Sales Index™ [Baltimore Metro Area]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, April 29, 2011, 11:30 AM
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[click to expand]
NAR’s March 2011 Pending Home Sale Index was released and touted as having (obviously) good results.
….a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 5.1 percent to 94.1 in March from a downwardly revised 89.5 in February. The index is 11.4 percent below 106.2 in March 2010; however, activity was at elevated levels in March and April of 2010 to meet the contract deadline for the home buyer tax credit.
[ongoing correction-pet peeve: it is NOT forward looking, it is current looking. Forward only in the context of closings which lag]
In reality the pending home sale index, because of last year’s tex credit skew, should use the non-seasonally adjusted results. Last year at this time the sales were wildly skewed higher than they should (red line). Later this year NAR will likely have to grapple with declining sales caused by last year’s wild skew downward.
The sharp jump in the M-O-M number is more about returning to a more reasonable level of activity than suggesting some sort of boom. The exaggerated jump was because sales in the second half of the year were artificially low (artificially high in the first half of the year.
The pending home sales indices I created for Washington, DC and Baltimore cover the same period but were release 18 days before the NAR report and show the same phenomenon.
Pending Home Sale Index March 2011 Press Release [NAR]
Pending Home Sale Index March 2011 Chart [NAR]
Pending Home Sales Index Baltimore Metro Area [RBI]
Pending Home Sales Index Washington, DC Metro Area [RBI]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, April 11, 2011, 10:00 AM
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[click to open release]
I am reporting on the DC and Baltimore metro area housing markets in addition to our NYC metro area market research – for RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), the research, analytics arm of MRIS, the largest MLS in the country.
Using the robust data RBI manages for its customers, I created a pending home sale index for the both the Baltimore and Washington, DC metro area housing markets that is released 10 days after the close of each period, about 3 weeks before the NAR pending home sale index covering the same period.
Here is one of the key results of the April 10th 2011 Baltimore report:
Pending home sales surge to highest March total since 2007, just above the decade average. There were 2,857 signed contracts between buyers and sellers in March, 33.1% more than were signed in February and 3.2% more than were signed in March 2010. Pending sales activity at this time last year was fueled by the nearing expiration of the federal homebuyers tax credit the following month. The expiration of the credit led to depressed sales activity for the balance of 2010. The recent jump in pending sales activity has the potential to stabilize prices during the spring.
RBI Pending Home Sales Index™ [Baltimore Metro] [Web]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, March 30, 2011, 10:27 PM
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I’ve been slammed as of late and Matrix has been dark for a week and a half – good grief – it pains me – what better way to come back to blogging than to have an energetic interview with Tom. Always fun.
BTW, I’m now the mayor of the Bloomberg HQ cafeteria on Foursquare.
