Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, May 4, 2012, 8:16 AM
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[click to expand]
I wanted to illustrate how little of the Miami housing market today is financed with a mortgage. And despite that, sales activity is trending higher. Counter intuitive but a reflection of its two drivers of demand: investor at the lower end and cash buyers, often foreign, at the upper end.
Any thoughts on the FHA, Conventional financing cross over back in 2Q 2011?
I’m slowly starting to build our Miami chart archive.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 3:39 PM
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Miami-based Douglas Elliman has had my Miami market report handiwork translated to both Spanish and Portuguese to better serve their South American clientele. Market demand from South America has been a significant force over the past year and a half. The weak US dollar continues to be one of the factors driving housing demand in Miami and one of the key reasons why the non-distressed market continues to thrive.
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish)Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese)
[click to open reports]
I took five years of French in high school so it’s a bit disorientating to see my analysis translated, but very cool at the same time. We are expanding our South Florida market analysis significantly over the next several months (no, France is not on the rollout list…yet).
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, April 13, 2012, 11:30 AM
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We published our report on the Miami sales market for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994 and added this regional report last year (but have historical data back to 2006).
The reprieve from foreclosures a la robo-signing mortgage services/49 state AG agreement is probably over and we expect a ramp in market share. Currently non-distressed and distressed sales have a 50/50 share but should go back to 2/3, 1/3 over the next year. Still, the housing stock for typical distressed sales are much smaller on average so its not appropriate to rely on a “throw it all in one bucket” view of the market because of the shift in the mix. Non-distressed price indicators are are showing modest increases.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
The Miami housing market continued to be
largely two different market segments: distressed
sales, defined as short sales and foreclosures,
and non-distressed sales. The “robo-signing”
scandal in late 2010 and the recent settlement
agreement between the major loan servicers
and the government has kept a large supply of
distressed properties from entering the market over the past year-and-a-half. However, we
anticipate an increase in distressed sales activity
over the next few years. While distressed and
non-distressed sales are not separate types
of housing, distressed condos and 1-family
property sales averaged 26.3% and 31.1% more
square feet, respectively than their distressed
sale counterparts in the first quarter.
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Manhattan rental market. I will be updating the chart section shortly. In the meantime you can see other market areas and some other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, November 15, 2011, 10:00 PM
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Always a pleasure to visit Bloomberg HQ. Deirdre’s got a new show and I like the format – more time for one-on-one discussion. Today we spoke about how the NYC metro area and Miami is fairing.
As an added bonus, I earned another mayorship on foursquare…
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, October 24, 2011, 6:30 AM
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I always thought my job was to translate the gobbledygook of housing market minutia to English.
Well, apparently Douglas Elliman Florida took it a step further and translated my Miami market report handiwork into Spanish and Portuguese versions.
For someone who took French from 7th grade to 11th grade and only learned to say “yes”, “no” and “can I sharpen my pencil?”, the results are very cool.
[click to open reports]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, October 13, 2011, 10:46 AM
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[click to open report]
The Elliman Report: Miami Sales 3Q 2011 (renamed) was published today. It is part of a report series that we have authored for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
You can build your own custom data tables with the new data. I’m about to launch a site redesign and am rejiggering the way I handle charts (automatic) so I haven’t been very diligent in updating them on my site – sorry about that.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
…All three housing price indicators posted yearover- year double-digit gains as last year’s ‘robo-signing’ scandal continued to keep banks from releasing their foreclosure inventory to the market until they become more comfortable that their process is not flawed for fear of legal exposure…The median sales price of a Miami property was $165,000, 10% above $150,000 in the prior year quarter and 1.5% above $162,500 in the second…quarter. The average price per square foot and average sales price followed the same year-overyear pattern. The third quarter average price per square foot jumped 14.2% to $209 and the average sales price jumped 18.7% to $322,072 compared to the prior year quarter…
Here’s a summary of the media coverage.
Other reports we prepare can be found here.
The Elliman Report: Miami Sales 3Q 2011 [Miller Samuel]
Miami custom data tables [Miller Samuel]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, August 24, 2011, 8:38 AM
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Now that we are past the earthquake thing, here are a couple of aftershock observations I’ve made (that were released more or less during the 20 second tremor) that I’d like to share:
The first piece is something I wrote for Knight Frank, a property consultant based in London who provides extensive global insight to their clients and has some of the best research I’ve ever seen. My piece sits restlessly on their Global Briefing blog where there is a lot of cool research to look at. I’ll be writing for them periodically.
They dubbed my post:
Letter from America – The state of the US housing market
The second piece is from The Real Deal South Florida. I did a Q & A with their editor on the Miami housing market. My research comes from the report I write for Douglas Elliman Florida. It’s amazing how misunderstood and misrepresented the Miami housing market is. I thought this piece provides a reasonable take on the state of the Miami housing market.
The interview was titled:
Q & A with Jonathan Miller.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, July 21, 2011, 9:52 AM
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[click to open report]
The “The Douglas Elliman Florida Report: Miami Sales 2Q 2011” was just published. It is part of a report series that we have authored for Douglas Elliman since 1994…and now Douglas Elliman Florida, who covers the Miami market.
It’s the first detailed market analysis of its kind on the Miami market, one that has been widely mis-reported by many who simply lumped everything into the same pool of data…when in fact, it is a complex market. We’ve broken the market out by condo, 1 family, distressed, non-distressed and by regions. More breakouts to come.
You can build your own custom data tables with the new data, which will also be expanded.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
…Overall housing prices were mixed in comparison
with the same period last year. Median sales
price fell 6.6% to $162,500 from $174,000 in
the same period last year. Over the same period
average price per square foot showed no change
at $225 and average sales price increased 2%
to $339,261.
However, the Miami housing market over the
past year was best characterized by a widening
gap in the performance of non-distressed and
distressed sales. The market share of distressed
sales, comprised of foreclosures and short sales,
rose over the past year reaching 64.7% in the
first quarter, but fell to 53.9% in the second quarter as prices weakened. Foreclosure sales
across the country temporarily cooled, due to the
“robo-signer” servicers scandal last fall, which
continues to restrain the release of foreclosed
homes to the market. Year-over-year median
sales price for distressed condo and 1 family
sales fell 7.8% and 13.8% respectively…
Other reports we prepare can be found here.
2Q 2011 Miami Sales Report [Miller Samuel]
Miami custom data tables [Miller Samuel]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, May 4, 2011, 1:01 PM
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[click to open report]
The inaugural Douglas Elliman Florida Report: Miami 1Q 2011 was published today. It’s been a journey to say the least and there is a lot more to come. This a preview of the coming quarterly analysis of the condo,
townhouse and single family sales markets
covering the coastal communities of Miami.
It’s the first detailed market analysis of its kind on the Miami market and the series content will be expanded in coming quarters with break outs for new development, distressed, non-distressed and locations.
We’ll be updating our chart gallery and custom data tables shortly.
UPDATE: Custom data tables are now live.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
…There were 5,101 condo, townhouse and single
family sales in the first quarter, 29.5% more
than the same period last year. Sales activity
remained above any prior quarter in the past
5 years. The increase in activity is due to a
consistent absorption of distressed sales. The
number of short sales expanded 10% over the
past year and comprised 20.5% of all sales.
REO sales nearly doubled over the same period
representing 44.2% of the first quarter market…
