Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, February 1, 2011, 7:26 AM 1 Comment
As I expand my market research to the Washington DC and Baltimore housing markets (market reports coming soon) for MRIS, the largest MLS in the US and their research group, RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), I am dropping in on their blogs fairly regularly to share my thoughts, ranging from the technical to the whimsical.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, October 27, 2010, 1:15 PM 1 Comment
Source: New York Federal Reserve [click to expand]
At least once a week I am asked about the breakout of the housing stock in Manhattan. My latest research/estimate has been 75% rental/25% owned for the borough and of the 25% owned, co-ops out number condos 3:1 or 75% to 25%. If you throw in townhouses, thats about 1% out of the 75%/25% co-op/condo relationship.
Ok, so apparently I wasn’t making this up. Here’s the New York Fed’s housing profile based on Census and the Housing and Vacancy survey. Phew! A great reference point for not only Manhattan, but all 5 NYC boroughs.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, September 21, 2010, 10:22 AM Comments Off
[click to expand]
Census released it’s housing starts this morning (although I am not sure how since the pdf that provides the info hasn’t been updated at the time of this post).
Home starts are seeking a bottom after falling off sharply since the expiration in the spring of a tax break for new- and existing-home buyers. The data suggest that the bottom may have been reached at 539,000 in June. Housing starts totaled 679,000 in April prior to the expiration of the government subsidy.
When you look at the chart in relation to data going back to 1959, a 10.5% increase this is clearly misleading. The starts, as suggested in the Marketwatch summary, seems to be trying to find a bottom, bouncing along since early 2009.
January 2006 was the recent peak and current activity is 26.3% as much as peak – or peak was 3.8 times more than current levels.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, August 12, 2010, 9:44 AM Comments Off
[click to zoom in]
A friend of mine sent along a copy of the 4-3-2-1 Rule from the Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) 1982 Diary and Manual.
I have been told it still gets some use – or at least the concept is used today.
In many ways it is very similar to the method I developed for valuing outdoor space. There is a diminishing return on a portion of the space based on its relationship to the adjoining apartment or in this case, its proximity to the street (frontage).
This seems to support my other theory: There is no “rule-of thumb” about “rules-of-thumb.”
Sales of new one-family houses in August 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 429,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.7 percent (±16.2%) above the revised July rate of 426,000, but is 3.4 percent (±13.3%) below the August 2008 estimate of 444,000.
(gotta love the +/- percentages)
The LA Times provides some additional perspective:
August’s sales pace was 4.3% below the same month a year earlier. Last year ended with 485,000 new homes sold, the worst year for new-home sales since 1982 and the third-worst year since the federal government began tracking the data in 1963. New-home sales peaked in 2005 at 1.23 million units.
Builders also have scaled back construction dramatically, cutting the inventory of new homes to a 7.3-month supply, down 34% from 11.1 months a year earlier. The reduction marks a return to a more normal market: a roughly six-month supply is the historical norm.
Despite a record drop in prices, sales of new homes flattened out in August after four months of strong increases, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Sales of new homes rose a statistically insignificant 0.7% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 429,000 from a downwardly revised 426,000 in July, which was previously reported as 433,000. Sales were down 3.4% from a year earlier, but were up 30% from the low in January. Through the first eight months of 2009, sales were down 28% compared with the same period a year ago.
Bottom line is that new construction is competing with rising foreclosures and faces significant challenges with financing availability. New home sales data doesn’t include contract rescissions either so I have always felt it is very inconsistent (a lot more positive) than national home builders actual numbers.
One might incorrectly assume their job might be a tad easier (thereby diminishing the urgency of their cause) without the massive quantity of essentially free mortgage money that was available for some crazy stupid development during the recent credit boom. The tear it down mantra seems a bit dated now.
No biggie but it’s fun to peruse. Of course, remember who is writing the blog and how boring he is. After being out of the loop for vacation, I feel the need to clear my desk so forgive the larger than usual volume of posts coming at you this week.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, July 13, 2009, 11:30 PM Comments Off
In this podcast I speak with Scott Spector, AIA, a principal of the Spector Group, a leading architecture and design firm that was founded in 1965. Scott is a very energetic and engaging person and I really appreciated the opportunity to have him join me on the podcast.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, May 14, 2009, 1:52 PM 1 Comment
Ok, we all agree that inventory is high because of the lack of activity. Here’s another way to work off excess housing – I call it thinking outside the foundation.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, August 20, 2008, 11:24 AM 2 Comments
I am struck by the extreme range and contrast of housing development beyond traditional on-site construction. From mobile homes on the low end to art-like pre-fab homes on the high end.
Single-wide, double-wide, wide-load
The mobile home market, which often represents the lower end of the housing demographic, is seeing particular hardship right now in the availability of financing. It is sort of a a hybrid of real estate and chattel (personal property).
In the development of mobile home parks it is not unusual for the home owner to be situated on leased land, something not generally done in traditional home building. Pre-fab homes (the kind you see being hauled in two halves on semi-tricks) are generally lumped into the same category. A few years ago there was a meltdown in the manufactured home mortgage market so now the new housing law directs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to come up with new loan products and flexible underwriting standards for manufactured homes. Don’t count on it.
Tubes on stilts
On the other end of the spectrum, pre-fab housing is seen as making a statement, an artistic interpretation of housing. The exception would be the type where the art/brand transcends the house, like the Frank Lloyd Wright utilitarian homes scattered throughout the midwest and Levittown. Long since bastardized to match today’s living standards. Worthy of the Museum of Modern Art, the emphasis is placed on design over functionality and practicality.
Had a fun interview with Tom and Sara this morning on the always MUST watch/listen Bloomberg Surveillance. We talked housing, rentals, vacancy and inventory. An added bonus was the addition of Adam Davidson – co-founder and co-host of Planet Money... Read More
