Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 10:04 AM
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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)
I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The “blue” line for average changes very little year to year but the scale of the chart does frequently.
Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:
April 2011 v. April 2012
[click images to expand]
Thoughts on the year-over-year comparisons
- Manhattan All price segments below $2M experienced noticeable increase in pace of absorption.
- East Side Condo market accelerating except for $10M+
- West Side $3M to $10M accelerating
- Downtown Below $2M went from faster than average absorption to a lot faster.
Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this analysis somewhat understates the pace of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, May 10, 2012, 9:51 AM
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Last night the championship dreams for Knicks fans that began in earnest with Linsanity, was officially over, ending with a final loss to Miami in Miami. The Knicks resurgence has been one of the few feel good stories of the year. I will now shift my sports focus to the Yankees and, oh yes, Tebow. Seriously considering following Curling instead.
During the regular season, my sons and I began to collect “Clydisms” by Walt “Clyde” Frazier, our Knicks hero from the championship years. He uses sing-songy phrases to describe the action. Even his new restaurant name has the same style to it.
When one of us wasn’t able to watch a game, the others texted the rest of us new phrases hoping to discover a new one to add to our list.
His phrases are addictive, part of the complete game experience, yet at the same time, completely uninformative. Sort of like national housing market studies. Although the headlines for housing have decidedly turned positive.
Here’s our collective hard earned list:
Moving and grooving
Sliding and Gliding
Swishing and dishing
Rebounding and astounding
Running and stunning
He’s the Novack in novocaine
He’s the Guadeloupe with the hoop
Whacked and hacked
Cruisin’ and Bruisin’
Perculating and devastating
Fields with the steal
Hanging and banging
Duke and hoop
Dishing and swishing
Tantalizing and mesmerizing
Huffing and puffing
Penetrate and devastate
Posting and toasting
Hustling and muscling
Resounding rebounding
Dooming and glooming
Hounding and pounding
Hang and bang
Hanging and banging
Thriving and driving
Duping and hooping
Stops and pops
The Knicks with the knack
Eratic, dramatic, ecstatic and charismatic
Straining and paining
Slammin’ and jammin’
Winning and grinning
In the Knick of time
Slicing and dicing
Wishing they were swishing
Huff and stuff
Sharing and caring
Using and abusing
In the Knick of time
Hurrying and worrying
Hustling and bustling
Spinning and winning
Shakin’ and bakin’
Shake and bake
Stumbling and bumbling
Puffing and stuffing
Penetrating and creating
Agile and hostile
Elton got branded
Swoops to the hoop
Contagious and outrageous
Duping and hooping
A little more pep in their step
Amazing grace
Wheeling and dealing
Hustle with muscle
Transitioning and swishing
Stoppin’ and poppin’
Velcro “d”, stickin’ to the man
Plays with heart and smart
Hacking and whacking
Cruising and bruising
Fortitude and aptitude
Wheels and deals
Bounded and astounded
Posting and toasting
Stooping and hooping
Pulverized in the paint
Huffs and stuffs
Fire and desire
Spinning and winning
So nice we’ll show it twice
Showing his amazing grace
Tenacity and sagacity
Penetrating and creating
Hustling and bustling
Shaking and faking
Dancing and prancing
Prancing on the perimeter
Nasty and sassy
Synergy and energy
The attack, attacking the rack
Trying to keep from crying
Moving and grooving
Stumbling and bumbling
Not hesitating but devastating
My fave? “Moving and grooving” hands down.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, May 4, 2012, 8:16 AM
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[click to expand]
I wanted to illustrate how little of the Miami housing market today is financed with a mortgage. And despite that, sales activity is trending higher. Counter intuitive but a reflection of its two drivers of demand: investor at the lower end and cash buyers, often foreign, at the upper end.
Any thoughts on the FHA, Conventional financing cross over back in 2Q 2011?
I’m slowly starting to build our Miami chart archive.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, May 3, 2012, 2:42 PM
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[click to open press release]
Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist on the sales market:
“Housing prices have already bottomed with asking prices on the rise for three straight months. Aside from a stumble in December, asking prices have been stable or rising for the last eight months,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Prices have joined the recovery, alongside sales and construction. But foreclosures threaten prices, especially in judicial-foreclosure states like Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and New York, where many more distressed sales are still to come.”
on rental market:
“Rents have steadily increased as people who lost their homes in the crash became renters. At the same time, high unemployment and tight credit sidelined would-be homeowners,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “But relief for strapped renters may be in sight. Construction of multi-family buildings revved up last year. These new rental units will come to market later this year, giving renters more choices and less fierce competition.”
Here’s the April 2012 report and a breakdown of the largest metro areas.
The Trulia Price Monitor for April 2012 shows:
- Asking prices up 1.9% quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted.
- Asking prices up 0.5% month-over-month, seasonally adjusted. This is the third straight month of month-over-month increases.
- Asking prices up 0.2% year-over-year, the first year-over-year increase in the price index.
- Asking prices up quarter-over-quarter in 92 of the 100 largest metros.
The Trulia Rent Monitor for April 2012 shows:
- Rents up 5.6% year-over-year.
New York Metro - you can see how much faster the rental market is rising over the sales market. In fact more than half of the NYC metro area are showing declining price trends.
The Trulia Price and Rent Monitors rely on the latest asking price or rent rather than the original to better track the direction of the market. Prices on MOM, QOQ and YOY on based on a 3 month moving average. Here’s the nitty gritty. Love the “technical” and “non-technical” FAQ notes detailing how it works.
Note: I have been on the Trulia Industry Advisory Board since its inception in 2006.
- Trulia Price Monitor Is Launched: New (Better) Way To Look At Housing Price Trends [Matrix]
- Rising Home Prices: Coming to a Market Near You [Trulia]
- Trulia Price and Rent Monitors – April 2012 [Trulia]
- Trulia Price and Rent Monitors – FAQ [Trulia]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 3:39 PM
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Miami-based Douglas Elliman has had my Miami market report handiwork translated to both Spanish and Portuguese to better serve their South American clientele. Market demand from South America has been a significant force over the past year and a half. The weak US dollar continues to be one of the factors driving housing demand in Miami and one of the key reasons why the non-distressed market continues to thrive.
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish)Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese)
[click to open reports]
I took five years of French in high school so it’s a bit disorientating to see my analysis translated, but very cool at the same time. We are expanding our South Florida market analysis significantly over the next several months (no, France is not on the rollout list…yet).
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 2:36 PM
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We published our report on Hamptons/North Fork sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
Here are some takeaways:
- Overall housing prices (median sales price up 1.2% ) continued to show stability.
- The luxury market showed larger year over year increases in the price indicators than the overall market.
- Number of sales were up nominally from same period last year (0.5%).
- Listing inventory is down sharply year over year (down 17.5%) – home sellers are more cautious about entering the market (ie sales flat but inventory falling).
- Properties taking somewhat longer to sell and there is a little more negotiability on price between buyer and seller (days on market and listing discount expanded)
- Despite strength in prices at high end, we saw an uptick in market share of sub-million sales – the decline in mortgage rates and warm weather brought buyers out sooner.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Median sales price edged up 1.2% to $630,000
from $622,500 in the prior year quarter. Average
sales price increased 17% to $1,437,597 from
$1,228,857 over the same period, largely due
to continued strength at the upper end of the
market. In the median sales price by quintile
analysis, the fifth quintile increased 24.8% yearover-
year, while the remainder of the market
segments showed modest change and mixed
results over the same period…
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables and view charts on the market.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 2:20 PM
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We published our report on Long Island sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
Here are some takeaways:
- Housing prices were mixed – median sales price unchanged 0% but average sales price fell 5.4%. The drop in mortgage rates shifted mix to lower priced homes.
- Pending sales unexpectedly jumped from year ago levels (+21.2%) as mild winter weather brought consumers into the market earlier than usual.
- The luxury market was somewhat weaker than the overall market. Luxury median price slipped 2.6% year over year.
- Listing inventory was also down (4.1%) as sellers were more cautious about listing their homes.
- Properties taking somewhat longer to sell and there is a little more negotiability on price between buyer and seller (days on market and listing discount expanded)
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Although the number of sales slipped 1.2% from
prior year levels, the mild winter weather brought
an unexpected surge in first quarter pending
sales. There were 5,209 signed contracts
outstanding in the first quarter, 21.2% more
than 4,297 in the prior year quarter. The unusual
amount of pending sales activity this quarter may
temper the levels of the second quarter, typically
a high water mark for sales activity each year.
Listing inventory slipped 4.1% to 20,358, the
lowest first quarter total in six years…
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables and view charts on the market.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 6:00 AM
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Trulia’s Chief Economist Jed Kolko keeps punching out dials and gauges on the housing market. He’s also got a “Price Monitor.” These tools are really growing on me because they provide context to the current state of the market – something that is sorely missing.
With his Housing Barometer, he combines three key housing market indicators:
- new construction starts (Census)
- existing-home sales (NAR)
- the delinquency-plus-foreclosure rate (LPS First Look).
Here’s the full write up: Trulia’s Housing Barometer: Recovery Slips Backward in March
and constantly asks:
What does a “normal” housing market look like, and how far away are we?
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, April 23, 2012, 11:04 PM
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[click to expand]
Recently I was contact by The Real Deal Magazine to take a look at the correlation between the stock market performance and the housing market. I personally don’t believe it and I have written about correlation and how silly it can get.
The thinking goes like this:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rises, the housing market rises = correlation = a housing market indicator, but…
“Twenty-five percent of New York City wages come from financial services,” Miller said. “It’s part of the fiber of being here and so there’s always been a propensity to correlate the Dow Jones industrial average with housing here. I don’t ascribe to that belief. Housing is not a stock. [Rather,] if you have a robust and actively traded market, in theory, employment is more likely to be stable, which consummates sales transactions.”
Actually, Manhattan’s market share was 37% in 2009 after reaching 44% in 2008.
For years I’ve been posting a DJIA versus Manhattan inflation-adjusted sales price chart and there wasn’t much correlation – I also tried a non-inflation version to no avail. But the reporter’s call inspired me to revisit the topic and compare DJIA against Manhattan sales and the patterns were actually pretty similar (see top chart).
When I think about the housing rebound in the dark days just after the Lehman tipping point and how stock-market orientated we are in Manhattan, the only thing that seemed to push consumers back into the market was the roar of the stock market in the first quarter of 2009. This comparison against sales (transactions) seems show the same trend. While I’m still not on the correlation bandwagon, the 20-year trend is quite compelling.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 19, 2012, 4:39 PM
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We published our report on Brooklyn sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
Here are some takeaways:
- Listing inventory fell sharply from the same period last year and is now below the five year average. Falling inventory has helped the market stabilize and caused the listing discount to compress.
- Housing prices slipped below year ago levels, largely due to the increased market share of lower priced co-op sales. While all types saw a decline, the share for co-ops expanded. The housing market is currently characterized as stable.
- New development continues to see consistent market share. The 1Q12 market share of 15.2% is consistent with the 15.7% four year average.
- Properties took one month longer to sell in the first quarter than in the same period last year. Part of the increase is contrarian – it is attributable to tight inventory forcing more older listings to be absorbed.
- The East Brooklyn area saw a sharp gain in market share to 18.6% of the borough from 10.3% in the year ago quarter largely because of the increased amount of distressed activity.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Housing prices slipped from prior year levels,
largely due to the shift in mix of property types
that sold over the quarter. The sharp decline
in mortgage rates to record lows resulted in
an increase in co-op sales market share, a
lower priced property type. Median sales price
declined 5.3% to $450,000 from $475,000 in
the same period last year. Average sales price
slipped 0.8% to $565,291 from $569,799 over
the same period. Listing discount, the difference
between the list price at the time of contract and
the sales price, was 3.5% tighter than 4.8% in
the same period last year The number of sales fell 23.9% to 1,807 from a
three year high of 2,373 in the prior year quarter.
Listing inventory also saw a large decline, falling
16.7% to 6,092 from 7,316 in the same period
last year. As a result the absorption rate, the
number of months to sell all active inventory
at the current pace of sales, increased to 10.1
months from 9.2 months over the same period…
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Brooklyn markets and I am updating the charts and will place them here. You can also see other market areas and other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).
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