Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 14, 2011, 9:55 AM
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This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist and Research Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research. He analyzes the Philadelphia and regional real estate markets through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology.
Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix …Jonathan Miller
View the report, press release, and Kevin’s commentary.
Observations
“House value changes uneven across region; average decline is 1.7 percent.”
However, the magnitude of this decline has been quite different from one locality to another. In Philadelphia county, the typical home declined in value by an average of 4.2% in Q4. But in the 10 suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia, the average decline was a much more modest 0.8%. However, in both cases, the decline in house prices slowed from the previous quarter.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, November 15, 2010, 10:08 AM
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This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist and Research Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology.
Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix …Jonathan Miller
From my own perspective, I’d summarize the Kevin’s insights as “It’s not always sunny in Philadelphia” and “people are honest when they blow red lights“. As much as I like Philly, it was not immune from the exodus of tax credit stimulus.
Download the report and Kevin’s commentary.
Observations
“Philadelphia House Values and Sales Drop Sharply in Q3…Price declines in Q3 erase the price gains from Q2″
The typical Philadelphia home fell in value by an average of 4.6% on a quality- and seasonally adjusted
basis this past summer, according to the latest data from the City’s Recorder of Deeds.
This most recent decline more than eliminates the gains from the previous quarter, in which
prices rose 3.8% as homebuyers sought to take advantage of the Federal homebuyer tax credit
before its expiration in June. With this most recent decrease, the average Philadelphia home has
now fallen in value by a total of 11% since the bursting of the national housing bubble several
years ago.
Check this out!
For great insight on Philadelphia real estate and neighborhoods, check out Brownstoner Philadephia whose lineage can be traced back to Brooklyn, NY via the original Brownstoner.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, August 12, 2010, 11:20 AM
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This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist and Research Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology.
Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix …Jonathan Miller
Download the report and Kevin’s commentary.
Observations
“Spurred by Tax Credit’s Expiration, Demand for Philadelphia Homes Surges in Q2 . . . But leading indicators signal a slowdown for the remainder of 2010″
Following a slower-than-usual winter season and motivated by the incipient expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit in April, Philadelphia homebuyers returned to the market in force this past Spring, with the most recent home sales data indicating that both house prices and sales up-ticked during the most recent quarter. Kevin Gillen, Econsult Vice President, provides a commentary as well as the full report and documentation in the links that follow. (August 10, 2010)
Check this out!
For great insight on Philadelphia real estate and neighborhoods, check out Brownstoner Philadephia whose lineage can be traced back to Brooklyn, NY via the original Brownstoner.
Posted by Jonathan Miller -Tuesday, May 4, 2010, 10:01 PM
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This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist and Research Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology.
Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix …Jonathan Miller
Download the report and Kevin’s commentary.
Observations
A struggling economy and “snow-mageddon” took its toll on Philadelphia’s housing market this past winter, with the most recent home sales data indicating that both house prices and sales activity took another hit during the most recent quarter.
After a year in which the market signaled some signs of finally stabilizing, house prices fell citywide in the first quarter of 2010. The typical Philadelphia home declined in value by an average of 4% on a quality- and seasonally- adjusted basis this past winter, according to the latest analysis by Econsult economist Kevin Gillen. This was the largest quarterly decline since the winter of 2009. From the housing market’s peak in 2006 to date, the average Philadelphia home has now fallen in value by a total of 11%…
Check this out!
For great insight on Philadelphia real estate and neighborhoods, check out Brownstoner Philadephia whose lineage can be traced back to Brooklyn, NY via the original Brownstoner.
Posted by Jonathan Miller -Tuesday, January 26, 2010, 12:01 AM
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This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist and Research Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology.
Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix …Jonathan Miller
Download the report and Kevin’s commentary.
Observations
The most recent home sales data indicate a solidifying of the local housing market’s condition after several years of both declining sales and prices.
After two years of falling prices, prices held steady for the third consecutive quarter in 2009 Q4. The typical Philadelphia home rose in value by 0.5% on a quality- and seasonally- adjusted basis this past fall, according to the latest analysis by Econsult economist Kevin Gillen. From the housing market’s peak in 2006 to the recent trough of last winter, the average Philadelphia home had fallen in value by a total of 10.5%. But with the market’s apparent stabilization in the latter part of 2009, the average Philadelphia home has recovered 3.5% of its lost value, thereby reducing its total loss to only 7% since the bursting of the national housing bubble several years ago.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, October 28, 2009, 12:20 AM
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This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist and Research Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology.
Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller
Download the report and Kevin’s commentary.
Here’s his recent press coverage on the findings.
The most recent home sales figures suggest a slowing in the momentum of the housing market’s attempt to recover from its current slump.
Following the first quarterly increase in citywide house prices after two years of falling prices, the typical Philadelphia home rose in value by a scant 0.2% on a quality—and seasonally— adjusted basis this past summer, according to the latest analysis by Econsult economist Kevin Gillen. Following on the heels of a robust increase of 6.8% this past spring, Philadelphia house values appear to still be struggling to regain the value they lost over the past two years. With these losses in value netted against these two recent increases, the typical Philadelphia home has lost 8% of its value since the bursting of the national housing bubble over two years ago.
UPDATE: Greater Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices now available.
After experiencing the first increase in region-wide house prices in nearly two years this past spring, the Greater Philadelphia region slowed in the rate of appreciation this past summer. (November 11, 2009)
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, July 30, 2009, 10:28 AM
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This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist at the Real Estate Department of the Wharton School and Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology.
Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller
Download the report and Kevin’s commentary.
Here’s some press coverage on the findings.
After seven consecutive quarters of declining house prices, the typical Philadelphia home
actually rose in value by an average of 6.8% on a quality- and seasonally- adjusted basis this past
spring, according to the latest analysis by Wharton and Econsult economist Kevin Gillen. This is
a reversal from nearly two years of price declines. And, when added to previous price declines,
Philadelphia house values are down cumulatively by 12% from the local market’s peak of two
years ago.
UPDATE: Kevin released his Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices, 2009 Q2 which includes the Philly perimeter of outlying counties in Pennsylvannia, Delaware and New Jersey.
The Greater Philadelphia Region’s housing market exhibited some signs of stabilizing this past quarter, with both house sales and prices showing modest increases. (August 12, 2009)
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, April 27, 2009, 11:31 AM
3 Comments
This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist at the Real Estate Department of the Wharton School and Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology [pdf].
Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller
Download the full report [pdf].
Read Kevin’s analysis: Philadelphia’s Housing Market Deteriorates Sharply in Q1: But city now considered “under-valued†for the first time since 2003.
According to the latest analysis by Wharton and Econsult economist Kevin Gillen, the typical
Philadelphia home fell in value by an average of 8.4% on a quality- and seasonally- adjusted
basis this past winter. This is an accelerated rate of decline from previous quarters. And, when
added to previous price declines, Philadelphia house values are down cumulatively by 17.1%
from the local market’s peak of nearly two years ago.
- Price changes across the city’s neighborhoods were uniformly negative, with no areas exhibiting
any price appreciation.
- According to the data, 2,530 homes transacted under arms-length conditions this past winter; an
all-time low.
- …it still seems to out-perform its peers in its relatively low foreclosure rate.
- Philadelphia’s housing is now actually considered to be under-valued.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, January 26, 2009, 12:12 AM
1 Comment
This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist at the Real Estate Department of the Wharton School and Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Hallwatch, a watchdog group. The results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology [pdf].
Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and its a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller
Download the full report [pdf].
Read the Hallwatch article on the market: Decline in Home Values Accelerates: But city still continues to outperform most other large U.S. metro markets.
But while the Philadelphia’ market has declined less than many other U.S. cities, the news here is still sobering:
- The number of homes that actually sold under arms-length conditions in Q4 stood at just over 3,400; which was a dramatic 25% drop from Q3 and the lowest level of home sales since 2002 Q4.
- Inventories (homes listed for sale) still stand at all-time high levels. As of December 2008, there were nearly 10,000 houses listed for sale in Philadelphia, which is still well above their pre- bubble average.
- The continued high number of homes for sale combined with a continuously shrinking pool of buyers means homes continue to linger on the market. The average time it took to sell a home in Philadelphia in Q4 rose to 74 days, which is well above the 30-40 days it typically takes in a balanced market.
More discussion concerning the report [Hallwatch.org]. Hallwatch is a private and independently maintained watchdog website that does a lot of in-depth, independent and investigative pieces on city politics, as well as real estate.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, November 6, 2008, 2:09 PM
2 Comments
This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist at the Real Estate Department of the Wharton School and Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Hallwatch, a watchdog group. The results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology [pdf].
Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and its a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller
Download the full report [pdf].
Read the Hallwatch article on the market: Philly real estate: low level of sales, price changes mixed
But while the Philadelphia’ market has declined less than many other U.S. cities, the news here is still sobering:
- Inventories (homes listed for sale) still stand at all- time high levels. As of September, there were nearly 11,000 houses listed for sale in Philadelphia, nearly double their pre- bubble average.
- The number of homes that actually sold under arms-length conditions in Q3 stood at just over 4,500; well below the nearly 8,000 that was the average during the boom years.
- The continued high number of homes for sale combined with a continuously shrinking pool of buyers means homes continue to linger on the market. The average time it took to sell a home in Philadelphia in Q3 was 67 days, which is well above the 30-40 days it takes in a balanced market.
- And, while Philadelphia’s rate of foreclosure is well below the average for most large U.S. cities, it is nonetheless up nearly 50% from one year ago.
More discussion concerning the report [Hallwatch.org]. Hallwatch is a private and independently maintained watchdog website that does a lot of in-depth, independent and investigative pieces on city politics, as well as real estate.
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