Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 28, 2011, 3:00 PM
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[click to open report]
The Furman Center for Real Estate & Urban Policy at NYU released their quarterly housing report on NYC which has a particular emphasis on the state of foreclosures. Here are a couple of report snippets.
- Notices of foreclosure declined 32 percent citywide in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to the same quarter of 2009, led by sharp declines in Queens and Staten Island. The Bronx, however, experienced a 78 percent increase in fore- closure notices between Q4 2009 and Q4 2010.
- Morethanhalfofthesingle- family homes receiving a fore- closure notice in Q4 2010 were in Queens, while Brooklyn led the city in multi-family homes entering foreclosure.
New York City Quarterly Housing Update 2010: 4th Quarter (October – December) [Furman Center]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, February 2, 2011, 8:27 AM
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Borrowing costs (10-year bond yield spreads over benchmark German bonds)
[Source: WaPo - click to expand]
The Washington Post shows its graphics prowess with this interactive chart on loans extended between EU countries. While I continue to hear about European buyers entering the NYC housing market, the phenomenon appears to be greatly exaggerated. Irish carpenters are fixing their own roof (with a lot of help).
[Source: WaPo - click to see interactive version]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Sunday, December 12, 2010, 7:33 PM
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[click to open report]
While I am on the topic of foreclosures, I’d been remiss about not posting about the new publication The Furman Center, one of the leading academic research centers “devoted to the public policy aspects of real estate, land use and housing development.”
They also publish the seminal The State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods which is chock full of NYC data. I co-authored a research paper with them a few years ago published in the Journal of Legal Studies at University of Chicago, an infrequent (but fun) foray into academia.
Their sales data on page 1 is consistent with the data I publish (phew!). What’s really new and of particular interest to me is their foreclosure analysis on page 2 with tidbits such as…
- 3 single family foreclosures in the 3Q in Manhattan!
- 4,696 3Q 10 foreclosures in NYC, 20.8% below 3Q 09 (think robo-signing foreclosure slow down).
and lots more…
New York City Quarterly Housing Update 2010: 3rd Quarter (July – September) [Furman Center]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, October 28, 2010, 11:10 AM
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Since I already report on the Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens residential housing markets, I’d be remiss in excluding The Bronx (Yankees!) and Staten Island (Class AA Yankees) housing markets. And also have wanted to arrive at an overall New York City number and draw comparisons across the 5 boroughs.
Yesterday I presented a 5 borough analysis in my Three Cents Worth column on Curbed showing how Manhattan sales volume as mushroomed in recent years.
I have been compiling a collection of charts for the Bronx (ok, The Bronx) and Staten Island but not ready for posting yet. Break outs by property type, quintiles, etc. coming. We’ve got aggregate data for all five boroughs and New York City already available online. The Manhattan numbers are a little different than the other reports on the borough since it is the combination of co-ops, condos and 1-3 families which is not previous reported in the existing reports unlike Brooklyn and Queens.
Here’s the 3Q 2010 NYC Brief:
[click to open]
New York City Charts [Miller Samuel]
New York City 3Q 2010 Data Brief [Miller Samuel]
Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Breaks Away From NYC [Curbed]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, May 22, 2009, 5:57 PM
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Our commercial advisory firm just released the Manhattan Building Sales Report prepared in conjunction with Massey Knakal, a leading commercial real estate brokerage firm.
My commercial valuation partner John Cicero, MAI in our firm Miller Cicero oversees the report preparation. The report is the only one of its kind that tracks cap rates, income multipliers, price per square foot and number of sales.
The format has changed to quarterly and the expanding series will be more borough-specific.
An excerpt:
The first quarter of 2009 property sales market in Manhattan is
characterized by a dramatic slowdown in sales activity. This is
the first period tracked that truly reflects the market mentality
created in September 2008 with the collapse of Lehman
Brothers, the federal bailouts of AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac, and the ensuing paralysis of the credit markets throughout
the fall. (In contrast, our last market report for the second half
of 2008 included numerous sales that were negotiated pre-
September)…
Massey Knakal will distribute nearly 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.
Massey Knakal Manhattan Building Sales Report [1Q09]
Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Saturday, March 21, 2009, 7:56 AM
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Our commercial advisory firm just released its New York City Income Property Market Report for the second half of 2008 for Massey Knakal. My commercial valuation partner John Cicero prepares the report. It’s the only report of its kind that covers the New York City commercial market.
Here’s what he says:
The Massey Knakal Income Property Report that I prepare on behalf of the brokerage firm was just released for the second half of 2008. The report is the only one of its kind that tracks cap rates, income multipliers, price per square foot and number of sales for the New York City multi-family market. As this report included only those sales (above $500,000) that closed from July 1 through December 31, it includes sales closed before and after the market turn in mid-September, when Lehman collapsed and the credit markets seized.
An excerpt:
The number of sales dropped 45% from the second half of 2007 to the second half of 2008. Relative to the prior year the greatest declines were in Manhattan and Northern Manhattan, both down 54%, and the Bronx, down 60%. Year over year there were 37% fewer sales in 2008. This suggests a turnover rate of 1.9%, down from 3.0% in 2007 (of the categories tracked).
Massey Knakal will distribute nearly 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.
Massey Knakal New York City Income Property Market Report [2H08]
Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, October 14, 2008, 11:39 PM
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Our commercial advisory firm just released its New York City Income Property Market Report for the first half of 2008 for Massey Knakal. My commercial valuation partner John Cicero prepares the report. It’s the only report of its kind that covers the New York City commercial market.
Here’s an excerpt:
Though underwriting may be more conservative, the decline in sales volume is a function of lack of inventory rather than lack of demand. The underlying rental market remains strong and investors continue to be interested in such property but supply is constrained. The consolidated median price per square foot across markets declined to $222, down 5% from the prior six month period. Similarly, the median cap rate (across all sectors) inched up slightly to 5.8% from 5.5% from the prior period while the median GIM slipped from 12.4 to 11.5…
Massey Knakal will distribute over 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.
Massey Knakal New York City Income Property Market Report [1H08]
Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, May 15, 2008, 11:49 AM
1 Comment
Our commercial advisory firm just released its New York City Income Property Market Report for the second half of 2007 for Massey Knakal. My commercial valuation partner John Cicero prepares the report. It’s the only report of its kind in the New York City commercial market.
Here’s an excerpt:
In the second half of 2007 credit tightened considerably as the losses in sub-prime mortgages worked their way through the financial markets. While indicators are somewhat mixed, in general during this period prices for income property remained stable throughout the city, though the number of sales dropped, in some instances quite dramatically. This reflects the “wait and see†attitude that characterized the period, with fewer buyers bidding and sellers reluctant to lower prices. The fundamentals of the market remained strong, however, with high apartment rents and very low vacancy. The prospect of turning over below market rent-regulated units to higher market levels continues to attract investors, and credit, though tighter, was still available albeit from different sources. Cap rates and gross income multipliers remained stable.
The number of sales dropped 16% from the first half of 2007 to the second half, though the decline was only 7% from the second half of 2006 to the second half of 2007. On a calendar year basis, there were overall 10.5% fewer sales in 2007 than 2006. Though the number of walk-up apartment buildings in Manhattan showed a sharp decline from the first half of the year, calendar year 2007 sales actually show a 16% increase over calendar year 2006…
Massey Knakal will distribute over 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.
Massey Knakal New York City Income Property Market Report [2H07]
Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, November 28, 2007, 10:28 PM
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Our commercial advisory firm just released its New York City Income Property Market Report for the first half of 2007. My commercial valuation partner John Cicero put the report together. Its the only one of its kind available.
Here’s an excerpt:
The number of closed sales was up 11.3% in the first half of 2007 compared to the prior six month period, driven by the sales activity in Manhattan, including Northern Manhattan. Manhattan saw twice as many walk ups sold in the first six months of 2007 compared to the second half of 2006. Along with the increase in the number of sales, the median price of a Manhattan apartment building showed a sharp increase as well, breaking $500 per square foot for the first time. The median price of a walk-up apartment building in Northern Manhattan also set a record, exceeding $300 per square foot. The outer boroughs were mixed, however, as the price of walk-up apartment buildings in Brooklyn and Queens remained relatively flat, while Bronx saw a decline in price to $100 per square foot. The cap rates for walk-up apartment buildings, which comprise the greatest sample size, illustrated further compression in Manhattan, including Northern Manhattan, and generally remained flat in the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens. Though the number of sales is up sharply from the second half of 2006, with 2,063 closed sales compared to 1,852, there were nonetheless 13% fewer sales than the first half of 2006, one year ago, which was the most active period of the past four years…
Massey Knakal will distribute over 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.
Massey Knakal New York City Income Property Market Report [pdf]
Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, May 17, 2007, 7:04 PM
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Our commercial advisory firm just released its New York City Income Property Market Report for the second half 2006. My commercial valuation partner John Cicero put the report together. Its the only one of its kind available.
Here’s an excerpt:
The second half of 2006 saw a sharp drop in the number of income property sales, down 22% from the first half of the year. The greatest decline was in Manhattan (south of 96th Street), where the number of sales declined 44%. Northern Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx each saw the number of sales decline from 17% to 21%. Though the drop in the number of sales was significant, the sales activity for all of 2006 was nonetheless 34% higher than in 2005, with 4,234 sales versus 3,148 sales, respectively. The market- wide turnover rate was 1.5% in the second half of 2006 (down from 1.9% the prior half) a total turnover rate of 3.4% for the year. This is in contrast to the second half 2005 turnover rate of 1.3%, and a total 2005 turnover of 2.5%…
Massey Knakal will distribute over 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.
Massey Knakal New York City Income Property Market Report [pdf]
Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]
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