Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 12, 2012, 10:55 AM
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We published our report on Westchester/Putnam market sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994 and added this regional report about a year ago (but have about 30 years of historical behind it).
The market was a mixed bag this quarter. Weak but trying to stabilize. Overall prices trended lower but the luxury market posted strong gains over the same period last year. Inventory edged higher but was offset by sales rising enough to keep the monthly absorption rate unchanged. We expect inventory to expand over the next few years as foreclosures enter the market after last year’s robo-signing scandal held them off the market.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
There were 1,277 sales in the first quarter, 1.8%
more than 1,254 sales in the same period last
year. The market share for 1-family properties
expanded to 59.1% from 57.5% over the same
period. Condo market share edged up to 14.7%
of all sales from 14.4% in the prior year quarter.
Co-ops and 2-4-family properties declined over
the same period to a 5.6% and 20.5% market
share, respectively. In the 1-family market, the
Northeast and South-Central regions showed
large gains in market share of sales over the
past year, while the remaining four regions
experienced declines in market share.
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Westchester and Putnam markets. I haven’t added charts for this region yet but they are coming. In the meantime you can see other market areas and some other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).
* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, October 13, 2011, 10:40 AM
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[click to open report]
The Elliman Report: Westchester & Putnam Sales 3Q 2011 was published today. It is part of a report series that we have authored for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
You can build your own custom data tables with the new data. I’m about to launch a site redesign and am rejiggering the way I handle charts (automatic) so I haven’t been very diligent in updating them on my site – sorry about that.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
…The median rental price, without concessions, was essentially unchanged year-over-year at $2,995. However, median rent with concessions (net effective monthly median rent), increased 4.9% over the same period to $2,970 from $2,831. Approximately 8.6% of new leases had some form of landlo…All price indicators showed year-over-year declines in the third quarter. Median sales price fell 7.8% to $495,625 from a post credit-crunch high of $537,500 in the prior year quarter, but increased 8.3% from $457,500 in the second quarter. Price per square foot slipped 2% from the prior year quarter to $292 and average sales price declined 4.2% to $689,468 as compared to the same period last year. Housing prices in the prior year quarter of 2010 were somewhat inflated by the influence of federal homebuyer tax credit in 2010…
Here’s a summary of the media coverage.
Other reports we prepare can be found here.
The Elliman Report: Westchester & Putnam Sales 3Q 2011 [Miller Samuel]
Westchester & Putnam custom data tables [Miller Samuel]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, July 8, 2011, 10:11 AM
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[click to open report]
The renamed “The Douglas Elliman Report: Westchester & Putnam Sales 2Q 2011 was published today. It is part of a report series that we have authored for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994.
You can build your own custom data tables with the new data. Charts will be added shortly.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
…All three price indicators for the Westchester housing market showed year-over-year increases, as larger properties gained favor. Median sales price, price per square foot, and average sales price posted year-over-year gains of 4.9%, 3.2% and 9.3%,respectively. However,the increase was generally related to the shift toward larger property sales and it would be more accurate to characterize the market as stable. The average square footage of a home sold in the second quarter was 2,236, up 5.9% from 2,112 in the same period last year…
Other reports we prepare can be found here.
2Q 2011 Westchester & Putnam Sales Report [Miller Samuel]
Westchester/Putnam custom data tables [Miller Samuel]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, May 23, 2011, 3:05 PM
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[click to open]
My friend and colleague Todd Huttunen, a periodic contributor here in his column “The Hall Monitor” and my old blog, the now defunct Soapbox, is an assessor for the Town of Eastchester, New York. He penned a response to the NYT article earlier this month: Westchester Towns Take Hit From Rise in Tax Appeals.
Todd is spot on with his commentary on the growing phenomenon of tax appeals as the economy flounders.
The increase in this number is the appropriate and predictable response to the devastating economic events of the last three years, and their impact on homeowners.
In fact, property taxes are rising in a weak economy despite much lower real estate values. This is an expected result in any economic downturn.
Government spending always lags such a downturn since it is much harder and less politically popular to address. Spending expanded during the boom largely due to real estate tax related revenue growth (property, transfer, permits, construction/housing related jobs, etc.)
Large local government shortfalls, with the lag in response to the change in economic conditions, is the next big thing the US will have to grapple with.
It’s particular interesting how private sector employment is finally rising but being partially offset by government employment declines. That’s the lag.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, May 23, 2011, 12:14 PM
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Here’s a sobering City Journal (love the pub and iPad app!) article on the state of the “The Tappan Zee Is Falling Down” – the replacement of the Tappan Zee Bridge crossing the Hudson River and connecting Westchester and Rockland County New York.
The Tappan Zee exemplifies the state of America’s infrastructure in 2011. We rely on it more than ever: each year, 51 million cars, trucks, and buses traverse the seven-lane “Tap,” as locals call it. More people commute over it than through the Lincoln or the Holland Tunnel, both of which cross the river to the south. Yet New York outgrew the bridge decades ago, with today’s traffic far exceeding the structure’s designed capacity. Worse, the Tappan Zee is a disaster in slow motion.
The bridge has several decades too old and undergoes continuous renovations. I thought the stimulus package would accelerate construction of roads and bridges but alas, the process is bogged down by the same federal government that brought us the stimulus package.
Its a key regional asset that impacts the economy and as an extension, the housing market.
Bridge naming: Tappan Indian tribe, + Dutch word for “sea”.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, December 22, 2010, 9:49 AM
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Guest Columnist:
Todd Huttunen
Todd Huttunen began appraising more than 20 years ago with a few years off in between to pursue a career in cabinet making. He relegated that to hobby status and is currently an appraiser in an assessor’s office. His best friend dubbed him The Hall Monitor because of his rigidity and respect for rules. He offers Matrix readers tongue-in-groove insight on appraisal and housing issues. View his earlier handiwork on my first blog, Soapbox
At first glance, to the uninitiated, his insights appear to the far right of wonkiness but in reality they apply to all real estate professionals so read carefully my friends. I’m glad to have his contributions on Matrix.
The Adjustment for One Full Bath Versus Two
December 21, 2010
When valuing a residential property, an appraiser is faced with completing a form, most of which is already populated with a series of “canned comments” that do not change from one report to the next. Where the rubber meets the road is on the sales comparison grid – this is where adjustments are made to the comparable sales in order to arrive at a value estimate for the subject. Most every unit of comparison for which an appraiser makes an adjustment involves some degree of subjectivity. From a property’s location and size, to its curb appeal, to whether or not it has a fireplace or a pool or a finished basement – all these attributes will affect different people differently – save one.
There is one thing – and only one thing – in a house that is used by everyone, multiple times, every day for a variety of vitally important functions. Although we take it for granted, life as we know it would not be possible without the bathroom. The motivation for this article was to try to discover, once and for all, the value difference between a house with only one full bathroom versus one with two. And the reason for this is that when it comes to houses in my area (Westchester County) the market has spoken clearly and unambiguously. A three bedroom house with fewer than two full bathrooms near those bedrooms is considered functionally obsolete in this regard. Whether or not the functional obsolescence is “curable” in every case is an open question. In my opinion, more often than not, it isn’t. Thankfully, we have the grid to help us reconcile differences between the subject and the comparable sales. Unfortunately, in the appraisals I’m seeing, the adjustments most appraisers are making (usually $10,000 to $15,000 per full bath) between houses with one or one-and-a-half bathrooms and those with two or two-and-a-half bathrooms are wholly inadequate. In an effort to find out the appropriate adjustment for one versus two full bathrooms, I did what appraisers have been trained to do. I looked to the market for the answer.
More after the jump…
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, May 20, 2010, 10:52 PM
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I have a candid conversation with Chris Meyers, COO of Houlihan Lawrence, the largest real estate brokerage firm in Westchester County, New York. A family business, Houlihan Lawrence has 1,200 agents and 24 offices to service Westchester, Putnam and Duchess Counties.
We talk about many things including the housing market of the past 18 months, finding good agents and the introduction of social media to the real estate brokerage business.
Check out the podcast.
The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List
You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.
Posted by Jonathan Miller -Tuesday, April 27, 2010, 9:51 PM
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The Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service, Inc. provides a quarterly analysis of the Westchester County real estate market, a suburb of New York City.
Although we perform appraisals in Westchester it’s been a while since I wrote about the market. I just did the keynote at Westchester Real Estate, Inc.’s annual award luncheon and got some great feedback from the brokers in attendance.
For perspective, and aside from the last two years, annualized sales levels in 2010 are below every year since 1993. In fact, the annualized sales level for 2010 is exaggerated since the first quarter benefitted from elevated sales activity caused by the federal tax credit which will not continue to skew sales higher in the second half of 2010.
Despite a 54% increase in sales activity in 1Q 2010 over the prior year quarter, sales listing inventory actually increased 3.9%. In other words, new listings entering the market outpaced the properties being sold off. With the gains in sales, we would expect a decline in inventory over the same period.
Here’s an excerpt from the WPAR report.
Real estate firms participating in the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service reported 1,313 closings of Westchester residential property transactions in the first three months of 2010, an increase of 54% from the same period a year ago. Putnam County closed transactions were up by 28%. The closings largely reflected marketing and contract activity that took place during the late autumn and closing months of 2009.
Although the year to year percentage increases in sales were high in all categories of housing tracked by the MLS, it must be noted that they were calculated against the very poor sales base of the opening months of 2009. At that time total sales were less than half those of the peaks posted in 2006 and 2007. The 2010 volume was closer to that posted at the start of 2008 when the real estate recession first took hold in our area. Seasonally adjusted1, Westchester’s 2010 first quarter sales were equivalent to an annual sales rate of 6,830 units; that approximate annual volume was last experienced in 1995 and 1996.
Download the Westchester and Putnam Counties 1Q 10 report [WPAR]
Posted by Jonathan Miller -Tuesday, April 27, 2010, 8:39 PM
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Guest Columnist:
Todd Huttunen
Todd Huttunen began appraising more than 20 years ago with a few years off in between to pursue a career in cabinet making. He relegated that to hobby status and is currently an appraiser in an assessor’s office. His best friend dubbed him The Hall Monitor because of his rigidity and respect for rules. He offers Matrix readers tongue-in-groove insight on appraisal and housing issues. View his earlier handiwork on my first blog, Soapbox
Jonathan Miller
Seasonality Should be Considered in Comp Selection
April 26, 2010
The Westchester numbers for the first quarter just came out today. Even with the turbulence we’ve seen in the last couple of years, there remains a consistent trend in the median selling prices as relates to “seasonality”.
Not unlike Metro-North or Hamptons rentals, there is a “peak” and an “off peak”.
Whether the overall market is trending up or down, houses that close in the second or third quarters sell for considerably more than those that close in quarters four or one.
Appraisals done “in season” (assuming 60 days from contract to closing, these would be valuation dates in the six months between February 1 and July 31) should rely, if possible, on sales that closed in the second and third quarters, if not from the year of the appraisal then on the prior year. Conversely, appraisals made between August 1 and January 31, or “off season”, should focus on sales from quarters four and one.
Adjustments are required for the difference in market conditions between “in season” and “off season” for single family houses in the New York metropolitan area. What those adjustments should be can be fairly easily calculated by looking at the historical data for median prices. Remarkably, in Westchester at least, the differences are pretty consistent either in upward of downward trending markets.
Check out that serpentine line on the Median Price chart – just for fun, print it out and draw a line connecting only quarters two and three to each other over the years. Then do the same to quarters four and one and watch how quickly that serpentine line straightens out into two lines with much more of a consistent trend to them.
I really don’t understand why appraisers are so stuck on this idea that only sales taking place within six months of valuation date should be used. Six month old sales can be the most misleading ones of all, insofar as market conditions are concerned.
p.s. I know I addressed this issue in a prior post but it bears repeating since it seems almost no one is paying any attention.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, July 29, 2009, 12:30 AM
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The Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service, Inc. provides a quarterly analysis of the real estate market. Considered a suburb of New York City, Westchester County, NY, is considered a suburb of the New York City real estate market.
Incidentally I’m looking forward to speaking at the Westchester County Board of Realtors annual meeting in the fall.
Although we perform appraisals in Westchester, it’s been a while since I blogged about the market (using their report)…
Like NAR’s existing home sale stats, the Westchester-Putnam MLS annualizes and seasonally adjusts. Sales and prices are up from the prior quarter (remember: seasonally adjusted) and had the first significant increase in number of sales since 1Q 07.
Sales are down 30.7% from the same period last year. Median sales price was down 16.3% over the same period to $565,000. A portion of the price decline was due to a shift in the mix to proportionally more sales at the lower end of the price spectrum. Inventory is down almost 7% from last year which had been the highest level in 4 years.
Sound like other markets you know? Does to me – that’s because credit is driving this.
Download the 2Q 09 report and a myriad of previous reports back to 1981.
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