Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, October 29, 2008, 1:36 PM
The 3Q 2008 Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. Due to demand, I expanded the Long Island/Queens Market Overview into two separate reports.
To review the report methodology.
…Both price indicators have declined nearly every quarter since the first quarter of 2007. Median sales price in the current quarter is $400,000, down 11.4% from the $451,250 of the prior year quarter and down 20% from the $480,000 market peak in first quarter 2007. Average sales price reached $436,575 this quarter, down 8.8% from the prior year quarter average sales price of $478,752 and down 11.2% from the $485,455 average sales price for the first quarter of 2007. The market trends by quintiles showed a wide range of price trends. The entry level or first quintile was $175,000 and showed no change in median sales price from the prior year quarter. The weakest segment was the third or middle quintile, that saw a 25.8% decline in median sales price to $335,000 from $451,250 in the same period last year…
Download report: 3Q 2008 Queens Market Overview [pdf]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, October 29, 2008, 1:32 PM
The 3Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. Due to demand, I expanded the Long Island/Queens Market Overview into two separate reports.
To review the report methodology.
…The median sales price for the fifth consecutive quarter has fallen from the prior year quarter and seven of the last eight quarters. The Median sales price at $415,000 was down 6.2% from $442,380 in the same period last year. Median sales price is off 7.8% from its peak two years ago during the same period when it was $445,521. Average sales price saw a similar pattern suggesting that the price decline was not due to a skew in the mix of what sold over the quarter. The average sales price was $508,936 this quarter, down 7.3% from the prior year quarter result of $548,883…
Download report: 3Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview [pdf]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, October 24, 2008, 12:41 AM
Here’s the remainder of the Q&A column I was invited by the New York Times to participate in, along with Vicki Been of the NYU/Furman Center.
I enjoyed the process and was asked to do more in the future.
Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate?
This is the second session. There were originally supposed to be three, but they asked more questions in each of the two so I suppose they felt they had enough.
And who needs reality television when you’ve got Karl Rove speaking at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual convention.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, October 24, 2008, 12:32 AM
Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related chart(s).
Zubin Jelveh’s Odd Numbers blog at Portfolio.com from has a terrifc chart that ranks countries with a bailout in place by percentage of GDP.
Staggering – it makes the US $700B bailout seem like a drop in the bucket relative to other countries. Of course, more drops are coming. Incidentally, those countries on the list have been on a US consumer buying spree, including real estate.
Check out the Paulson interview on Charlie Rose on Tuesday. Is it just me, or was US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s defense of the current administration’s handling of the credit crunch and his job exit strategy strange? I wonder why he would not consider remaining in office (assuming the new president wants him) to oversee the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression?
This just in: The evil man theory of failure.
UPDATE: If you are feeling a little upbeat today – confidence feeling better, likely because it is Friday, I have just the thing to knock you down. No I am not talking about the Dow Futures falling 500 points overnight. Next year, someone is predicting the Dow to drop another 41% over the next year because earnings estimates are too high.
Click here for original graphic.
At some point down the road, albeit later than sooner, won’t we see a surge in real estate activity? Stock market volatility is crazy and borrowers are restrained from financing now. Pent up demand and bloated inventory…
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, October 22, 2008, 12:41 AM
Been crunchin’ two new market reports 24/7 (one is a re-design) to be released very soon so my posts have been few and far between. In the meantime, here’s a Q&A column I was invited by the New York Times to participate in, along with Vicki Been of the NYU/Furman Center.
It works like this: NYT announces the Q&A session and then picks out questions they want the experts to answer. It’s really a format I enjoy.
Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate?
This is the first session. There will be two more over the next several days.
Of course, Gossip Girl was also on many people’s minds.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, October 20, 2008, 10:49 AM
Matrix is the blending of economics, real estate and of course, farm animals. Here’s the latest low-brow explanation of how the bailout works, as passed around that series of tubes (Hat tip to Marty).
So here goes:
Young Chuck moved to Texas and bought a donkey from a farmer for $100.
The farmer agreed to deliver the donkey the next day.
The next day he drove up and said, ‘Sorry son, but I have some bad news,
the donkey died.’
Chuck replied, ‘Well, then just give me my money back.’
The farmer said, ‘Can’t do that. I went and spent it already.’
Chuck said, ‘Ok, then, just bring me the dead donkey.’ The farmer asked,
‘What ya gonna do with him? Chuck said, ‘I’m going to raffle him off.’ The
farmer said You can’t raffle off a dead donkey!’ Chuck said, ‘Sure I can – watch me. I just won’t tell anybody he’s dead.’
A month later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked, ‘What happened with that dead donkey?’ Chuck said, ‘I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at two dollars a
piece and made a profit of $998.’ The farmer said, ‘Didn’t anyone complain?’
Chuck said, ‘Just the guy who won. So I gave him his two dollars back.’
Chuck now works for Goldman Sachs.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, October 20, 2008, 12:01 AM
I have had the pleasure of providing a monthly chart for the Economic Spotlight section of Crain’s New York Business magazine since September 2003. Here is the latest, which appears in the current issue of Crain’s New York Business.
Source: Crain’s New York Business
Go here for a complete archive of my Crains’s New York Economic Spotlight charts that have been published. They are organized by year.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Sunday, October 19, 2008, 10:49 PM
The New York Times asked me to share research and reports I come across (excluding my own) that may help inform readers on the topic of housing.
As a New York Times “online contributor”, I get a byline which is neat.
Here is my recent handywork:
Suggested bookmark: New York Times Topics: Housing
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, October 17, 2008, 10:17 AM
The 3Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was just released.
Look for lots of additional data and charts on the market in the coming weeks.
Other reports we prepare can be found here.
Historical aggregate data is online (which I will continue to expand) and a series of charts will also be available soon.
average sales price of a Brooklyn residential
property was $575,287 this quarter, down 4.7%
from the $603,428 average sales price of the
same period last year. Median sales price showed
a similar pattern, slipping 5.6% to $510,000 this
quarter from $540,000 in the prior year quarter.
There was a 4.5% decline in the condo median
sales price to $505,493 over the same period
which is consistent with the overall market.
Co-ops showed little change in median sales
price borough-wide over the same period. The
median sales price of a co-op was down 1.7% to
$280,000. The median sales price of 1-3 Family
properties declined 3.2% to $600,000, Luxury
properties were consistent with the overall
market sliding 3.4% to $1,210,000…
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, October 15, 2008, 1:30 PM
I was invited to participate in a panel discussion about the state of the Manhattan real estate market tonight at the Yale Club. Not sure if there are tickets left, but if so, try here:
Tonight: October 15th @ 7PM at the Yale Club at 50 Vanderbilt Avenue
The moderator will be Michael Stoler, Senior principal at Apollo Real Estate Advisors.
My co-panelists will be my good friend Noah Rosenblatt of UrbanDigs.com fame, who is a VP at Halstead and Melissa Cohn, president of Manhattan Mortgage and one of the most successful mortgage brokers in the country.
Ivy League update: Giving a speech to Harvard Business School Alum in November. Details to follow.
UPDATE: Here’s a new offering by the Manhattan Institute: MARKET MELTDOWN NEW YORKâ€™S FINANCIAL CRISIS A terrific group of presenters discuss what is in store for the New York region.
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