Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, December 30, 2010, 11:20 AM
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I was interviewed this morning by Deirde Bolton, host of Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track” about the research I compiled for this story by Oshrat Carmiel: Manhattanites Move to Luxury Rentals as Cost Falls Versus Buying
My fave article quote in a rare lucent moment for me was:
It’s a win-win for the disaffected seller and the nervous buyer.
When I was done, I sat in for a radio interview with Ken Prewitt and a guest host covering for Tom Keene, the always insightful Lakshman Achuthan.
You have to admire how Bloomberg leverages their content. I hope this TV expansion works out – I have grown weary of opinion based business journalism offered elsewhere.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, December 28, 2010, 4:00 PM
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In addition to my blogging duties here on Matrix and The Housing Helix, I’ll be contributing several times a week to RESource, a blog by MRIS (Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.), the largest MLS in the US and for a soon to be re-launched blog for their wholly owned subsidiary, RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC (RBI).
Today’s post
What The December 2010 Case Shiller Report Says About DC (And What Case Shiller Really Measures)
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Excerpt: It’s that time of the month to ponder the meaning of the Case Shiller report…and it showed more weakness than economists expected…but this report actually measures what happened last summer, not the current market [read full post]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Sunday, December 26, 2010, 3:36 PM
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I got to interview my namesake, Jonathan Miller who is the longtime author of the seminal publication Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the Urban Land Institute’s (ULI) annual commercial real estate industry forecast and speaks extensively on suburban and urban issues.
Our real estate lives have intersected for years. For example, I would get complimented for a presentation at the Waldorf Hotel (although he gave the speech) while he would get inquiries about the NYC co-op condo market (which I track).
He is the co-founder of Miller Ryan LLC, a firm that provides strategic marketing communications counsel to the financial services and real estate industries. He also writes over at GlobeSt.com on his Trend Czar blog.
Check out the podcast.
The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List
You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, December 22, 2010, 9:49 AM
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Guest Columnist:
Todd Huttunen
Todd Huttunen began appraising more than 20 years ago with a few years off in between to pursue a career in cabinet making. He relegated that to hobby status and is currently an appraiser in an assessor’s office. His best friend dubbed him The Hall Monitor because of his rigidity and respect for rules. He offers Matrix readers tongue-in-groove insight on appraisal and housing issues. View his earlier handiwork on my first blog, Soapbox
At first glance, to the uninitiated, his insights appear to the far right of wonkiness but in reality they apply to all real estate professionals so read carefully my friends. I’m glad to have his contributions on Matrix.
The Adjustment for One Full Bath Versus Two
December 21, 2010
When valuing a residential property, an appraiser is faced with completing a form, most of which is already populated with a series of “canned comments” that do not change from one report to the next. Where the rubber meets the road is on the sales comparison grid – this is where adjustments are made to the comparable sales in order to arrive at a value estimate for the subject. Most every unit of comparison for which an appraiser makes an adjustment involves some degree of subjectivity. From a property’s location and size, to its curb appeal, to whether or not it has a fireplace or a pool or a finished basement – all these attributes will affect different people differently – save one.
There is one thing – and only one thing – in a house that is used by everyone, multiple times, every day for a variety of vitally important functions. Although we take it for granted, life as we know it would not be possible without the bathroom. The motivation for this article was to try to discover, once and for all, the value difference between a house with only one full bathroom versus one with two. And the reason for this is that when it comes to houses in my area (Westchester County) the market has spoken clearly and unambiguously. A three bedroom house with fewer than two full bathrooms near those bedrooms is considered functionally obsolete in this regard. Whether or not the functional obsolescence is “curable” in every case is an open question. In my opinion, more often than not, it isn’t. Thankfully, we have the grid to help us reconcile differences between the subject and the comparable sales. Unfortunately, in the appraisals I’m seeing, the adjustments most appraisers are making (usually $10,000 to $15,000 per full bath) between houses with one or one-and-a-half bathrooms and those with two or two-and-a-half bathrooms are wholly inadequate. In an effort to find out the appropriate adjustment for one versus two full bathrooms, I did what appraisers have been trained to do. I looked to the market for the answer.
More after the jump…
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, December 21, 2010, 1:12 PM
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I have made it a point to attend Mark Zandi’s economic forecast presentations over the years and had the opportunity to meet and speak with him at the Counselors of Real Estate meeting in Philadelphia a few months ago. He graciously accepted my invitation to have a conversation with me (via Skype). In 2009 Time magazine called him The Recession’s Hot Wonk. He’s got a more optimistic outlook than consensus at the moment, but he describes his optimism in its proper context during our conversation.
Mark is also an author, including Financial Shock: Global Panic and Government Bailouts–How We Got Here and What Must Be Done to Fix It and his new book Paying the Price: The New Economic Mess We Have Created and How to Get Out of It.
Check out the podcast.
The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List
You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, December 16, 2010, 7:21 AM
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I sent out a twitter post on this last night, but I was so overwhelmed with a sense of irony (or desperate to quench my thirst after that the dry muffin I had for breakfast) that I felt the need to include it here via my morning commuter train ride.
NPR/@planetmoney had a short piece on our burning housing question: Rent Or Buy? Freddie Finally Fixes Calculator.
Until now, the calculator had a fundamental (and revealing) flaw: It assumed home prices could never fall.
The economist who used to work at Freddie Mac, apologized saying:
“I’m sorry that I didn’t send an e-mail or work a little harder to get that fixed so the calculator can allow for the possibility of reality,”
Now apparently, it does…proving once again that it is the little details in life that keep us entertained.
Check it out.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, December 15, 2010, 10:32 PM
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Trulia released its Price Reduction Report for December 2010.
…“The homebuyer tax credit successfully created an impactful short-term demand which temporarily stabilized prices, but stopped short of being a true spark for real estate recovery,” said Pete Flint, co-founder and CEO, Trulia. “As I said in the beginning of the year, job creation will be the strongest indicator that the housing market is turning around. Looking at the latest unemployment rate which rose to 9.8 percent this month, we expect prices will continue to decline between five and seven percent nationally especially in the first of half of 2011.”…
Here’s a pretty cool chart feature on truliablog’s post of the report results.
Pete’s comments are right on point. The housing market seems to be exiting the tax credit era weaker than when it started, not supported by the underwhelming economy.
Here are the top 5 cities with highest number of price reductions
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It’s interesting because in the top 50 cities, the 27% average price deduction is well below the midpoint – now between the 36th and 37th cities. I’m guessing that New York, the largest market with a below average reduction rate of 25%, is pulling the midpoint lower?
Cities below the 50-city average
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December 2010 Trulia Home Price Reduction Report [Trulia.com]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, December 15, 2010, 6:37 PM
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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate.
…One of the more pronounced trends of the past two years – the P.L.E. (Post-Lehman Era) – has been the wild swings in the types of apartments that have sold. Perhaps one of the better ways to view how manic this market has been is to look at total square footage sold. I went back 20 years and took the square footage of Manhattan co-op and condo sales and plotted them (red line) and trended them (gray line)…
Three Cents Worth: Manhattan’s Manic Square Feet
[Click to expand and read full post on Curbed]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, December 15, 2010, 4:08 PM
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I first spoke to Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com last year at the Inman Conference in NYC and found him to be very engaging. Yesterday he dropped by our offices and we had a conversation on the state of the national housing market. Fun!
Check out the podcast.
The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List
You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, December 13, 2010, 11:05 AM
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I get to have another conversation with Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac – this time via skype. I’ve long admired his ability to articulate the state of the US foreclosure market. We touch on foreclosure mapping, robo-signing, and a sense of where we seem to be headed foreclosure-wise.
Check out the podcast.
The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List
You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.
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