[April 2008 Forecast] Correct Except The Short & Shallow Part
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, May 5, 2011, 12:20 AM
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Last week I was giving a presentation at the Real Estate Board of New York. As I was wrapping up what I found to be an engaging Q&A session, Donna Olshan, a real estate broker I’ve known for years, read off a list of my predictions I made to her in a conversation on April 20, 2008. As she read this, I quipped to the audience about about being “sandbagged”, so I was glad to hear I was fairly accurate except for the short & shallow recession part.
Here’s her description of the notes:
I have been keeping the memo in a pocket of a Spring Coat since we had the conversation on April 20, 2008. For the last few Springs I take it out and look to see how right you are.
In April 2008, it was about a month past the Bear Stearns collapse and things were looking shaky, but nothing to indicate it would escalate into the Lehman collapse. If you read Andrew Ross Sorkin’s “Too Big To Fail,” you can see we were about 48 hours away from a total global financial collapse.
“Donna Olshan’s 4/20/2008 notes on my views of the coming correction”
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