[Matrix Zeppelin] Negative carry, when they crashed, risque calender, 212, buyers quibble, explain to the bank, WAY more, Repeat sales, slippage, derivatives
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, April 6, 2007, 8:57 AM
Well, the Matrix Zeppelin has been in storage lately, its owners trying to figure out whether to rent or buy a garage for it. In the meantime, Matrix readers have been busy trying to touch up their photos of the market, trying to decide whether it looks better or worse than before:
Weâ€™re all familiar with the rapid escalation of home prices over the last 10 years. For most Americans, their homes have been the best and in many cases the only investment that they have made in their entire lives. Some have gone so far as to invest in several homes and have endured â€˜negative carryâ€™ on the cash flow in anticipation of leveraged capital gains a few years down the road. But where does it stop? Can housing continue to increase at twice the Consumer Price Index for the next 10 years?
According to Steven Roach, the dot com stocks only made up about 6% of the markets when they crashed, but sub-primes made up about 10% of last years real estate market.
As a Realtor and a professional photo retoucher/photographer, I would NEVER alter a photograph in such a way that it could be perceived as misrepresentation. I am very careful about such things. In the past I have adjusted the color, contrast, brightness etc. (say if I took the image on a cloudy day). I have removed trash cans from front yards, laundry and toys from bedroom floors, even a risque calender or two from office wallsâ€¦but never ever have I given the impression that the house was in better repair, the yard was more manicured or the neighborhood was more desireable. We have to be very careful about doing anything that could come back and get us later.
I live and work in 10021 and would hate to see any changes. Itâ€™s not status (I swear)itâ€™s just that as I age (mature?) I find myself less and less tolerant of these kinds of upheaval. My home and office phones are 212 (I rule!) but my cell has gone from a 646 to the foreign sounding 347. An agent I work with, an otherwise fine gentleman, has a 212 cell number. he is hated office wide for this.
As a broker when dealing with condos i use the square footage given in the offering plan and then say approximately. Reasoning being the offering plan to me is the official number and as you said everyone else who comes in to measure will get a different number. When buyers quibble my response is that all square footage is not the same or more clearly 1000 sf in one property will seem larger than 1000 sf in another. It comes down to usable space, how the space presents etc and then, what are you buying square footage or a home?
Whenever I appraise a condo, I always measure. Most times the official measurement is very close. I presume this is because the architect has to certify the plans…Nonetheless, I generally use the official measurement when doing the sales comparison approach. Why? Because that is what the typical buyer will consider. But I always include both measurements and explain to the bank the reason for the discrepancy (e.g., they included exterior walls, different method).
You fail to realize that â€œhomeownershipâ€ can only continue if employment does. What it sounds like youâ€™re really saying is â€œI have a job and a house so I donâ€™t care about other people.â€ Having higher employment is WAY more important for this country than high home â€œownership.â€ People can always rent a place to live, but itâ€™s more important that they be able to eat and clothe themselves than buy a house.
Repeat sales method takes each sale and compares the price paid versus its prior sale and then you combine the change in aggregate over a specific period – shiller apparently adjusts or factors for changes in the house – ie an extension. Iâ€™m not sure how this is done and it wonâ€™t consider an extensive renovation, for example nor does this index consider foreclosures or new development (its the first time sold so there is no repeat).
Case-Shiller picks up foreclosure sales between the bank and the market, not the mortgagee and the lender. From the methodology paper: â€œâ€¦ Although identified foreclosure transfers are excluded during the pairing process, subsequent sales by mortgage lenders of foreclosed properties are candidates to be included in repeat sale pairs.â€ New developments are not included because the methodology requires at least two recorded transactions prior to admmission into the index. Since Case-Shiller and OFHEO are repeat sales based indexes, there is â€œslippageâ€ in the sense that untraded iventory is not absorbed in the indexes. (As correctly noted above.) If there was an appraisal method, then a value could be guess-timated. However, over the long run, all these properties will eventually transact and will then be accounted for in the indexes.
There is a Case-Shiller index that tracks national housing prices. The index symbol is SPCSUSA. It updates quarterly instead of monthly. It is being traded as a forward over-the-counter (OTC), not as a listed futures contract. The forward market for expiration February 2010 is -12% bid, -4.25% offered. The derivatives market views nationwide housing prices as expressed by this Case-Shiller index as substantially lower looking out three years.