[Manhattan Absorption] October 2011 Co-ops Slower, Condos Faster (Unless >$10M)
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, November 2, 2011, 10:19 AM
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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)
I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market.
Thoughts
- Manhattan co-ops saw a slow down in their absorption rate up to $5m while condos not only saw faster absorption rates over last year but also faster than the 10-year average. $10m+ co-ops improved as condos weakened.
- East Side Co-op absorption slowed sharply at nearly all price points, exceeding the 10-year average while condos generally moved more quickly. $10m+ condos weakened however as this small market segment size often results in volatility.
- West Side Sub-million co-ops slowed as condos generally remained stable or improved across most price points. Condos at $10m+ slowed.
- Downtown Co-op absorption improved below under $1.5M while condos generally improved across most price points. $10m+ co-ops improved as condos weakened.
Side by Side Manhattan regional comparison:
October 2010 v. October 2011
[click images to expand]
Manhattan Absorption Archive 2011 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Absorption Archive 2010 [Miller Samuel]
Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.
