Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 10:00 AM
The New York Fed publishes a coincident index using data on employment, real earnings, the unemployment rate and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing and its beginning to show nominal weakness. This comes out monthly so I’ll keep an eye on it.
It’s not a lagging indicator like consumer confidence or a leading indicator like building permits. Coincident is closer to what is happening now, or it least that is what my economist friends tell me.
In October, the New York City Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) decreased at an annual rate of 0.4%, following a 0.1% increase in September. The index has risen 2.4% over the past year.
Since NYC housing’s future in the region partially depends on where the regional economy is going (it’s not all about foreign buyers), this suggests the NYC economy slipped a bit last month but is better than last year.