Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, January 4, 2012, 11:49 AM
I’m thinking that 2012 may very well look a lot like 2011…stable prices and sales, but with a bias towards weakness and yet a sprinkling of trophy property sales. Not a lot on the table in terms of reasons to think economic conditions will improve in a meaningful way and or get worse in a significant way. Housing will lag the economy for the next few years with the legacy of idiotic credit conditions of days past.
The market may become sort of…well…boring.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
After a summer and fall of mixed economic news and uncertainty caused by geo-political events including the debt ceiling debate, the S&P downgrade of US debt, and the financial crisis in Europe, the Manhattan housing market experienced a slow down in the level of activity. However, overall price retained its stability. There were 2,011 sales in the fourth quarter, 12.4% less than 2,295 in the prior year quarter. The fourth quarter had the lowest number of sales since the same period six years ago, perhaps related to the unusual surge in sales in the third quarter. Co-op and condo sales returned to near equilibrium with co-ops comprising 49.5% market share and condos comprising 50.5% market share. The drop in mortgage rates caused by the S&P downgrade helped shift more demand to the entry-level market, which is generally more responsive to changes in mortgage rates. Entry-level apartments, namely studio and 1-bedrooms, were 51.3%, the highest level since 2009, which readily saw market share in excess of 50%, as first time buyers entered the market after the credit crunch began….
As I’ve mentioned before, we just launched this site and I am getting used to how it works under the hood. The data section will be updated shortly, if not by the time you read this. Charts may be a bit longer since I am doing some house cleaning.
Here’s the press coverage for the report today, it’s fairly broad reflecting the strong interest in this market as some sort of gauge for the region.
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]