Mon 13 Aug 2007
[In The Media] CNBC On The Money Clip for 8-13-07
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller under Boom Bubble Bust , In The Media[6] Comments
CNBC gave me a call this afternoon for this 7:30pm live appearance. Ilaina Jonas of Reuters wrote a story that got picked up by publications like the Washington Post and Eliot Brown of the New York Sun wrote a similar story about slipping high end market confidence. I thought Melissa Francis did a nice job with the interview.
To play the clip (better edited version coming).
This program was inspired by two highly successful Manhattan real estate brokers who indicated they have noticed a lower sense of urgency by purchasers of high end properties in recent weeks.
Thoughts:
* Its the middle of August.
* Three weeks of constant hammering about the mortgage markets would cause any market to pause and reflect.
* I suspect bonuses won’t be significantly affected until 2009, but thats not to say 2008 bonuses couldn’t be tempered, but they are still expected to be higher than last year.
* The dollar remains week and inventory continues to fall.
* Its the middle of August.
* If the mortgage market has impacted buyer confidence and its only been a few weeks, its kind of tough to make a universal assumption that the market is significantly different because buyers are taking longer – thats 3 weeks by definition.
* If any of the 3 main factors causing unprecedented demand: bonuses, weak dollar and solid economy/reasonable mortgage rates, change significantly, the market has the potential to show weakness
* Prices aren’t spiraling out of control in Manhattan like we saw in 2004. There is elevated demand offset by a high level of new development entering the market, keeping prices in check, except for the very high end of the market (They’re rising).
* Speaking from my own experience (with deliberate intent to spread willful anecdotes but without malice), my own appraisal company set a record for sales in our first half of August.
* Oh yeah, its the middle of August so lets take some time off to reflect.
From the who says real estate isn’t porn department: Melissa’s other interview today in addition to my friend Owen Thomas at Valleywag who was on the segment before me.
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August 14th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
Looking god Jonathan on CNBC. Appreciate your candid opinions!!
August 14th, 2007 at 10:20 pm
[...] HERE’S WHAT JONATHAN MILLER (MATRIX) HAS TO SAY [...]
August 15th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
If you think that Wall Street bonuses won’t be affected with spreads blowing out and the Capital Markets coming to a grinding halt you are INSANE!
We are alread seeing layoffs and this is just the tip of the iceberg. If bonuses aren’t off significantly, then we who work on Wall Street will be shocked.
August 15th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
sgolden600 – interesting, so you see it affecting all areas of wall street right now, not just capital markets?
August 15th, 2007 at 9:51 pm
Absolutely. It already is. Activity (except for the volatile and downward stock market) has ground to a halt. You haven’t even begun to see the losses that firms will have from inventories of assets. You also have to take it account the mentality of the large firms. In great years, everyone gets paid because the firms have to do it. In bad years (remember the early 90s?) they pay only who they need to pay to keep them. They know that eveyone else can get far less becuase they know that they have no where else to go because nobody is hiring and in the rare cases where they are firms aren’t giving out big contracts.
August 15th, 2007 at 11:18 pm
sgolden600 – thanks for the great feedback! I was told a similar version by a wall street veteran the other day. The idea that this can be used as an excuse not to pay out is something I have heard recently as well.