Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, February 16, 2012, 8:30 AM
I was invited to keynote the February 2012 dinner meeting for the Appraisal Institute: Long Island Chapter in Westbury, Long Island to talk about the Long Island, regional and US housing markets, the problem with housing finance, misdirection in the market etc. with an extended Q&A session. …90 minutes of valuation discussion bliss.
It was great to see friends and acquaintances, let alone be invited to speak on issues I am so passionate about. I generally rail quite a bit about our profession, but I am speaking about the 80%, largely enabled by the AMC industry. The 20% was represented by the meeting attendees who have local market knowledge and are striving to improve their craft.
It became apparent to me from attendee feedback that:
- AMCs account for most residential mortgage lending
- AMCs provide terrible quality valuations but bank staff are mandated to use them from above
- The industry is aging – not much new blood is entering the profession (of course I am excluding AMC “form-filler” types called “appraisers” in name only but don’t actually appraise in my view
- The expectation of 3-5 more years of current conditions was consensus
- Banks are looking to expand but are not going to be easing credit anytime soon
- Many appraisers there were busy working on distressed and refinance property assignments, not sales