Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, March 13, 2012, 10:00 AM
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)
I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market.
Side by Side Manhattan regional comparison:
February 2011 v. February 2012
Thoughts on the year-over-year comparisons
- Manhattan Most price segments below $3M remained faster than 10-year average pace of sales. $3M-$5M and $10M+ slowed while $5M-$10M accelerated.
- East Side Co-op absorption continued to remain slower than a year ago pace of sales. Condo pace of absorption, specifically below $2M noticeably accelerated.
- West Side Sub-$2M more or less the same as last year. Weaker above $10M.
- Downtown Same as last month – the rates by segment generally accelerated below $5M and $10M+. The $5 to $10M segment slowed.
Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.