Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Saturday, April 7, 2012, 6:04 PM
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)
I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The “blue” line for average changes very little year to year but the scale of the chart does frequently.
Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:
March 2011 v. March 2012
Thoughts on the year-over-year comparisons
- Manhattan Most price segments below $3M remained faster than 10-year average pace of sales and accelerating. $5M to $10M accelerated while $10M+ slowed
- East Side Below $3M gained speed while $10M+ condos slowed.
- West Side Similar to overall Manhattan
- Downtown Below $3M gained speed while $3M+ slowed.
Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.