Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Sunday, December 7, 2008, 7:02 PM
With all the sharp discounts available, I just bought my first large flat screen (and Apple TV which is essential for maximum enjoyment) and found that it was a good time to buy (not at Best Buy, which wasn’t).
If you are reading this blog, you are interested in following the real estate economy, and are familiar with the tired mantra from the real estate brokerage industry “It’s a good time to buy real estate” presented as relevant advice no matter what the market conditions actually are. NAR has a formal public awareness campaign called “Good Time To Buy” There are, of course, plenty of naysayers in the current as well as any market. Let’s break it down.
Which market type is the best housing market to buy in?
- Rapid price growth
- Modest price growth
- No price growth
- Modest price decline
- Rapid price decline
Pretty simplistic, right? Yet that’s the framework of the conversation. Visit one of those markets and there are plenty of reasons to buy or not to buy. Is it price? affordability, future plans, employment outlook, etc. It’s not all about the market trend.
I think where the real estate brokerage industry (primarily NAR) has gone wrong has been it’s general unwillingness to be candid in any of these 5 scenarios. Yet there are many agents and brokers who have always been forthcoming and they will do well in any housing market.
Do you notice how NAR is not sought out in the media much these days as a “trusted advisor?” It’s been relegated to basic press release coverage at each existing home sale report release.
Is there good media coverage and bad media coverage about an event cycle like housing?
Few in the real estate brokerage business were complaining about the media cheering of rising housing prices during the early days of the boom. When the news turns negative, the brokerage industry turns a critical eye at the media. However, I see general real estate media coverage as somewhat predictable, but certainly not unfair
Media response to housing trends
- Rapid price growth (cheering)
- Modest price growth (cheering)
- No price growth (skepticism)
- Modest price decline (critical)
- Rapid price decline (critical)
I think much has been said and dissected about housing since peak a few years ago. Yet here’s a new trend in news coverage: It’s a good time to buy.
- Maybe Itâ€™s Time to Buy That First House [NYT]
- Itâ€™s Time to Buy That House [Businessweek]
- Is now a good time to buy investment real estate? [NY Daily News]
- Is Now The Time To Buy A House Or Refinance? [NPR]
- Maybe It’s Time to Buy [WaPo]
- Rent Now, Buy Later [NYT] (of course, with my two cents worth included)
Are we seeing the beginning of a contrarian news cycle?
Has the negative cycle gone on so long, readers are getting bored and want something new to read about?
Is it a good time to buy?
Another flat screen is starting to seem like a good idea.