Crains New York Business Economic Spotlight Chart – February 2009
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 23, 2009, 12:05 AM
1 Comment
I have had the pleasure of providing a monthly chart for the Economic Spotlight section of Crain’s New York Business magazine since September 2003. Here is the latest, which appears in the current issue of Crain’s New York Business.
Source: Crain’s New York Business
Go here for a complete archive of my Crains’s New York Economic Spotlight charts that have been published. They are organized by year.
Clearly if the demand for apartments was approximately 12000 in 2007, and with the average apartment going for at least one and half million in 2007, then there was at least 18 billion dollars in mortgages for 2007 minus the down payments. If the average investor put 20% down, and with a current decline in prices of 20% since 2007, banks are about to face an additional 13 to 14 billion dollar supply of mortgage delinquencies if the real estate market continues to decline. Very few purchasers of real estate in 2006 and 2007 have any profit in 2009. IF both 2006 and 2007 are added together, then the banks probably have close to $40 billion in mortgages that are about to go bad just in the New York City market. The surrounding suburban markets are getting clobbered. By the way with only Chase Manhattan and drug stores opening up, don”t the suburbs look just like New York City. With an equilibrium of neighborhood retail shops demand for city property will decline further. Prices declining, no uniqueness to reatilers.. so why pay one million for a studio.