Thu 2 Jul 2009
[Where Credit Is Due] 2Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller under Manhattan (NY)[11] Comments
The 2Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.
Other reports we prepare can be found here.
The 2Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts will be available today.
Press coverage can be found here.
An excerpt
…The Manhattan market, as measured by the median sales price of re-sale apartments, fell 25.6% as compared to the same period last year. The overall number of sales were 50.3% below the same period last year as a result of the tightening of credit, rising unemployment and a recessionary economy. There was an uptick in the number of sales late in the quarter due to both seasonality and a release of some pent-up demand from the limited sales activity at the beginning of the year. More sellers adjusted to the market price correction of the fall as evidenced by the decline in listing discount to 7.8% from 12.4% in the prior quarter. Buyers took advantage of mortgage rates at historic lows and price declines were less pronounced at the lower end of the market where credit terms are less restrictive. Market share of new development unit sales fell to 27% of all sales, their lowest level in 18 months and tend to lag market conditions by more than a year. As a result, the influence of new development sales activity in skewing the overall market data was less pronounced in the current quarter than in the prior several years…
Download 2Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview
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July 2nd, 2009 at 2:50 pm
[...] Diana Olick did a nice job covering the important points on the release of our Manhattan Market Overview 2Q 09. [...]
July 2nd, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Hi Jonathan. Any specifics on the Harlem market? I have been following brownstones, and sales seems to be very sparce…
July 2nd, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Not really – this report covers co-ops and condos. Brownstone sales activity is way to thin to reliably cover each quarter. However, sales activity is way down, a function of credit and lower prices in the markets to the south.
July 2nd, 2009 at 3:47 pm
[...] Manhattan Apartment Prices Drop as Lehman Effect Hits Home (Bloomberg) See also 2Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview [...]
July 2nd, 2009 at 5:43 pm
But do you agree with this article’s assessment, that we’re just at the beginning of Manhattan’s housing descent?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/146721-manhattan-housing-descent-has-begun
It will be unfortunate if the first-time home buyer’s credit runs out and mortgage rates start significantly upticking before NYC hits bottom.
July 3rd, 2009 at 7:49 am
Jonathan,
Your comment about the scanty data for Harlem, brings up my perennial question. If little data yields unreliable analysis, then what can the appraiser do who wishes to provide support for her/his market analysis? I don’t appraise Harlem and have never been there, but I live where the data is scant, most likely more so than Harlem. What I see many appraisers do here is to simply abandon the data altogether and incorporate and vehemently defend the latest urban myths into their reports, some of which, judging by the content, are surely generated by the likes of Mr. Yun. Seriously, many if not most of us who appraise in the data deserts, are faced with a choice of evils, scant data or urban myth.
I vote for the scant data (perhaps with a disclaimer), at least it doesn’t have an agenda
July 5th, 2009 at 8:58 am
Has anyone looked into the correlation to a large metro market to any local market? The core problem with Case-Shiller and MacroMarkets if it’s false assumption that there is a correlation to the metro area to the local or hyperlocal housing market, which there is NOT. The New York Metro Area has 14,003 markets (Block Groups) where information changes each month and quarter. Are all the homes and apartments in New York the same? Or does local market information like job growth and flow of capital matter?
July 5th, 2009 at 10:53 am
Eddie G,
I don’t know about the correlation of all of the local and metro phenomena, but I do know that the national unemployment and credit freeze have local components.
You say there is no correlation (of specifically what you do not say) and for the sake of staying on my topic, I will ask how it is that you know that. What study did you use for support to arrive at the conclusion there is no correlation?
July 5th, 2009 at 11:16 pm
Edd, thanks for asking. I buy and collect Census Block data and infomation, from various vendors like Haver Analytics etc. Updated monthly and quarterly. So none of this data or info is availble for free. I have written 2 books on the topic, and just getting out of stealth mode.
Earlier press release: http://www.emailwire.com/release/14098-Silicon-Valley-startup-has-the-answer-towards-repairing-the-SubPrime-Real-Estate-Meltdown-and-Housing-Crisis.html Feel free to email me directly at realvaues@yahoo.com too. Appreciate your feedback.
July 6th, 2009 at 11:58 am
Eddie G,
Thanks. I tried to E-mail you, but it bounced. I looked on the web-site after reading the article and looked at what was available. I note the the data sources are not cited and the methods of analysis are not discussed. I consider both of those things to be essential to any secondary sources I use. One of the really relevant things about this blog is the willingness of the author to share information. From that I learn not only where to look for the source, but methods of comparison. What you have to share may be something I could use and might be willing to pay for, but I still wonder what it is and if it is relevant and accurate. As always the restricted margins available to appraisers raise the question of affordability. Notwithstanding that saying that real estate is local, I do think there is evidence to support a conclusion that some of what happens in NY is correlated to Orlando and yes, Pueblo and Lamar. I note the goal of your business seems to be to predict house prices. I have chosen to abandon mortgage appraising so I am looking for information that is relevant to real estate markets other than residential.
July 6th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Thanks, opps a typo. My email address is realvalues@yahoo.com
As for source; I use many, and over the years have filtered these to the most accurate. Another is Acxiom. All the hyperlocal data providers charge a lot ($500 – $20,000) just to get set up to buy local data, and then you need a spatial db program (GIS) to match up address to block, track, zip, etc. The above is the reason why no one has local info. I have to buy this raw data, and thus over the years have developed treads and forecasts, with other macro datasets. With two PhD’s assisting. There in no correlation to anything from any city to any other city, or any large city to any block or track. Real estate info is very very nonlinear. I can snail mail a book to you. I would like your opinion, and seeking this. There is a page that states the sources. And can email you some whitepapers too. Email me your address and if you have a URL. Also, information like job growth, or business growth, or migration, excepted future value changes, or flow of capital is not residential or commercial specific, there are applications for both.