The Gamblers Say No Bubble, But Can’t Pick Superbowl Anymore
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, August 22, 2005, 11:03 PM
1 Comment
David Leonhardt’s article today about Online Betters was quite good. Using the odds fleshed out by online traders, you could have:
- Predicted the winner presidential election for all 50 states in 2004
- 85% of recent Emmy winners
- The current American Idol winner
The NYT article says that online gamblers see no sign of a housing bubble anytime soon…
Not sure I want to rely on this as a way to get comfortable with the real estate economy but it is tempting. One could argue that the recent poker craze, is a sign of speculative environment.
Then we get into predicting presidential elections..
2004 Predicting a Bush Victory [The Formula]
Using the Superbowl…
This brings to mind Superbowl predictors of presidential elections called The Superbowl Effect:
2000 It’s Redskins vs. the markets in the presidential race
1996 NFL Index Predicts Super Year For Stocks
Interesting. I wonder, do the online gamblers know something we don’t? Or are the odds in an online gambling market more like the results of a national survey, where there are enough participants voicing their personal forecasts for the online betting markets to give an accurate picture of overall public opinion.