Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, October 25, 2010, 9:35 AM
Here is last week’s press conference on regional economic conditions with a focus on housing by the New York Fed. I highly encourage everyone to listen to the audio, especially the part 1 and part 4 downloads.
Here are some rough notes:
- NYC Housing is less volatile than rest of the nation.
- NYC prices rose later than the nation, peaked in 2008 (Manhattan)
- NY/NJ/CT Region – housing less important to economy as a mature housing market. Less dependent.
- Boom and bust generally bypassed upstate New York
- NYC housing market differences – 2/3 rental housing, dominated by multi-family, co-ops, low loan to value, high prices
- NYC construction slow to adapt to changes in demand, rapid increase in prices
- NYC housing expansion began in 1996 – unusually strong
- NYC 2007 market turned down later and prices stabilized
- Manhattan rents fell in 2007-2009, moderated in 2010.
- NYC saw less penetration of non-prime loans
- Employment in NYC has improved faster than the rest of the country but still “painfully high”
- Pockets of distress in outer boroughs – higher than national average
- NYC loan loan to value rates result in fewer “underwater” mortgages. Less future duress.
- Renting is cheaper than owning
- new units still coming on line
- slower job growth of high paying jobs
- prices rose faster than rents during boom (more price declines possible)