[In The News] Bloomberg TV’s “Money Moves” W/Deirdre Bolton 5-8-12
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, May 8, 2012, 10:10 PM
Always fun to speak with Deirdre Bolton on her show. The producers positioned us to speak on the main floor in the middle of a lot of activity – talked luxury housing market. In Miami Housing Market, Cash Really is King
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, May 4, 2012, 8:16 AM
I wanted to illustrate how little of the Miami housing market today is financed with a mortgage. And despite that, sales activity is trending higher. Counter intuitive but a reflection of its two drivers of demand: investor at the lower end and cash buyers, often foreign, at the upper end. Any thoughts on the FHA, Conventional financing cross over back in 2Q 2011? I’m slowly starting to build our Miami chart archive.
Trulia Price Monitor and Trulia Rent Monitor April 2012
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, May 3, 2012, 2:42 PM
Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist on the sales market: “Housing prices have already bottomed with asking prices on the rise for three straight months. Aside from a stumble in December, asking prices have been stable or rising for the last eight months,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Prices have joined the recovery, alongside sales and construction. But foreclosures threaten prices, especially in judicial-foreclosure states like Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and New York, where many more distressed sales are still to come.” on rental market: “Rents have steadily increased as people who lost their homes in the crash became renters. At the same time, high unemployment and tight credit sidelined would-be homeowners,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “But relief for strapped renters may be in sight. Construction of multi-family buildings revved up last year. These new rental units will come to market later this year, giving renters more choices and less fierce competition.” Here’s the April 2012 report and a breakdown of the largest metro areas. The Trulia Price Monitor for April 2012 shows:
The Trulia Rent Monitor for April 2012 shows:
New York Metro - you can see how much faster the rental market is rising over the sales market. In fact more than half of the NYC metro area are showing declining price trends.
The Trulia Price and Rent Monitors rely on the latest asking price or rent rather than the original to better track the direction of the market. Prices on MOM, QOQ and YOY on based on a 3 month moving average. Here’s the nitty gritty. Love the “technical” and “non-technical” FAQ notes detailing how it works. Note: I have been on the Trulia Industry Advisory Board since its inception in 2006.
[Three Cents Worth NY #188] Manhattan Rent v. Buy v. Location v. Size
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, May 2, 2012, 1:20 PM
 It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capitol of the world. And I’m simply here to take measurements. Read today’s 3CW post on Curbed New York: Since we are in some sort of rent versus buy gray zone right now, I thought I’d create a “gray” matrix showing the market share differences in location and apartment size based on the buy and rental market in Manhattan. This is not a rent versus buy analysis but rather a comparison between two distinctly different markets…
Translating Miami Real Estate Into Spanish & Portuguese, 1Q 2012 Edition
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 3:39 PM
Miami-based Douglas Elliman has had my Miami market report handiwork translated to both Spanish and Portuguese to better serve their South American clientele. Market demand from South America has been a significant force over the past year and a half. The weak US dollar continues to be one of the factors driving housing demand in Miami and one of the key reasons why the non-distressed market continues to thrive. Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish)Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese)
I took five years of French in high school so it’s a bit disorientating to see my analysis translated, but very cool at the same time. We are expanding our South Florida market analysis significantly over the next several months (no, France is not on the rollout list…yet).
[Stable and Sandy] 1Q 2012 Hamptons/North Fork Sales Report
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 2:36 PM
We published our report on Hamptons/North Fork sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994. Here are some takeaways:
Here’s an excerpt from the report: Median sales price edged up 1.2% to $630,000 from $622,500 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price increased 17% to $1,437,597 from $1,228,857 over the same period, largely due to continued strength at the upper end of the market. In the median sales price by quintile analysis, the fifth quintile increased 24.8% yearover- year, while the remainder of the market segments showed modest change and mixed results over the same period… I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables and view charts on the market.
[Warm Weather Pendings] 1Q 2012 Long Island Sales Report
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 2:20 PM
We published our report on Long Island sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994. Here are some takeaways:
Here’s an excerpt from the report: Although the number of sales slipped 1.2% from prior year levels, the mild winter weather brought an unexpected surge in first quarter pending sales. There were 5,209 signed contracts outstanding in the first quarter, 21.2% more than 4,297 in the prior year quarter. The unusual amount of pending sales activity this quarter may temper the levels of the second quarter, typically a high water mark for sales activity each year. Listing inventory slipped 4.1% to 20,358, the lowest first quarter total in six years… I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables and view charts on the market.
Quest Magazine Intro – April 2012 Issue
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 9:28 AM
Quest Magazine asked me to write an intro piece on the luxury housing phenomenon i.e. “Real Estate Renaissance” followed by a number of housing types from the markets they publish within. Quest is a beautiful magazine with some interesting editorial perspectives and great visuals on high end real estate. Here’s what I wrote (I’m arguably the driest writer in the magazine, but hey, it’s how I think): Real Estate Renaissance: Jonathan Miller – April 2012 One of the primary characteristics of the U.S. coastal housing markets, after the dust settled from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, has been a sustained period of high-end market strength. Trophy properties are seeing new demand. The sudden end to an era of reckless bank underwriting and subsequent entry into a period of fiscal austerity was expected to disproportionately crush the luxury housing market. Easy access to credit allowed for many consumers to live beyond their means. The onset of the credit crunch led to the overnight evaporation of the secondary market for jumbo mortgages, too large to be purchased by ailing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. While the federal government focused on the former GSEs, little attention was given to improving access to mortgage financing for high-end housing. Banks now have to hold jumbo mortgages in their own portfolios rather than offload the risk to investors hungry for bigger returns. The much tougher jumbo mortgage financing requirements were expected to bring a collapse of high-end housing prices and grind sales activity to a halt. But that isn’t how it played out. The price spread between high-end and starter homes has expanded over the past several years despite irrational mortgage underwriting standards for jumbo mortgages. In fact, a remarkable number of home purchases at the high end of the market have been paid with cash rather than obtaining mortgage financing at commercial banks, thereby bypassing the lending industry’s legacy of poor lending decisions in the prior decade. The global accumulation of wealth during the global economic boom enabled many investors after its end to seek out luxury housing in the U.S., helping coastal markets outperform others. The weakness of the U.S. dollar against other foreign currencies, specifically in Europe, South America, and Asia has brought investors to U.S. soil in droves. Initially, this was viewed as a currency play where wealthy foreign investors were simply taking advantage of the sharp discount for U.S. housing. While the favorable exchange rates may have tipped the balance towards the acquisition of U.S. assets like housing because of the perceived discount, investors were also moving their assets into a relatively more politically and economically stable environment. Will the use of cash in housing purchases continue? It seems likely, perhaps out of necessity. Rational jumbo mortgage underwriting standards and the creation of stable secondary market for jumbo markets is not expected to return for years. Once those problems are eventually resolved, the widening gap between luxury housing and the balance of the market could very well widen further.
[Trulia Housing Barometer] Recovery Slips Backward in March
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 6:00 AM
Trulia’s Chief Economist Jed Kolko keeps punching out dials and gauges on the housing market. He’s also got a “Price Monitor.” These tools are really growing on me because they provide context to the current state of the market – something that is sorely missing. With his Housing Barometer, he combines three key housing market indicators:
Here’s the full write up: Trulia’s Housing Barometer: Recovery Slips Backward in March and constantly asks: What does a “normal” housing market look like, and how far away are we?
[Three Cents Worth NY #187] Manhattan Mortgage Rates Are Listing
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, April 24, 2012, 11:11 PM
It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capitol of the world. And I’m simply here to take measurements. Read today’s 3CW post on Curbed New York: By far the three most popular observations about the Manhattan housing market to date in 2012 are: “mortgage rates are at historic lows” and “listing inventory is tight” and…ok, there are just two that are worthy.
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 10/06/2011 [Interview PART II] Barry Ritholtz, CEO, Director of Equity Research, Fusion IQ, Author, Bailout Nation, The Big Picture Blog05/13/2013 Bloomberg Surveillence TV with Tom Keene, Sara Eisen and Adam DavidsonHad a fun interview with Tom and Sara this morning on the always MUST watch/listen Bloomberg Surveillance. We talked housing, rentals, vacancy and inventory. An added bonus was the addition of Adam Davidson – co-founder and co-host of Planet Money... Read More Vortex |
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