Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 10:04 AM
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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)
I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The “blue” line for average changes very little year to year but the scale of the chart does frequently.
Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:
April 2011 v. April 2012
[click images to expand]
Thoughts on the year-over-year comparisons
- Manhattan All price segments below $2M experienced noticeable increase in pace of absorption.
- East Side Condo market accelerating except for $10M+
- West Side $3M to $10M accelerating
- Downtown Below $2M went from faster than average absorption to a lot faster.
Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this analysis somewhat understates the pace of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Saturday, April 7, 2012, 6:04 PM
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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)
I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The “blue” line for average changes very little year to year but the scale of the chart does frequently.
Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:
March 2011 v. March 2012
[click images to expand]
Thoughts on the year-over-year comparisons
- Manhattan Most price segments below $3M remained faster than 10-year average pace of sales and accelerating. $5M to $10M accelerated while $10M+ slowed
- East Side Below $3M gained speed while $10M+ condos slowed.
- West Side Similar to overall Manhattan
- Downtown Below $3M gained speed while $3M+ slowed.
Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, March 13, 2012, 10:00 AM
Comments Off
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)
I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market.
Side by Side Manhattan regional comparison:
February 2011 v. February 2012
[click images to expand]
Thoughts on the year-over-year comparisons
- Manhattan Most price segments below $3M remained faster than 10-year average pace of sales. $3M-$5M and $10M+ slowed while $5M-$10M accelerated.
- East Side Co-op absorption continued to remain slower than a year ago pace of sales. Condo pace of absorption, specifically below $2M noticeably accelerated.
- West Side Sub-$2M more or less the same as last year. Weaker above $10M.
- Downtown Same as last month – the rates by segment generally accelerated below $5M and $10M+. The $5 to $10M segment slowed.
Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 27, 2012, 8:50 AM
1 Comment
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)
I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market.
Side by Side Manhattan regional comparison:
January 2011 v. January 2012
[click images to expand]
Thoughts
- Manhattan All price segments below $3M were faster than the 10 year absorption rate. Segments above $3M showed signs of cooling, specifically in the $3M-$5M and $10M+ range.
- East Side Co-op absorption showed an across-the-board slow down with all segments remaining higher than the 10-year overall average rate. Conversely, the rate for condos accelerated for all segments but the $2M and $10M+.
- West Side All absorption price segments generally accelerated with the exception of $10M+ that slowed sharply.
- Downtown The rates by segment generally accelerated below $5M and $10M+. The $5 to $10M segment slowed.
Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.
