Overall housing prices (median sales price up 1.2% ) continued to show stability.
The luxury market showed larger year over year increases in the price indicators than the overall market.
Number of sales were up nominally from same period last year (0.5%).
Listing inventory is down sharply year over year (down 17.5%) – home sellers are more cautious about entering the market (ie sales flat but inventory falling).
Properties taking somewhat longer to sell and there is a little more negotiability on price between buyer and seller (days on market and listing discount expanded)
Despite strength in prices at high end, we saw an uptick in market share of sub-million sales – the decline in mortgage rates and warm weather brought buyers out sooner.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Median sales price edged up 1.2% to $630,000
from $622,500 in the prior year quarter. Average
sales price increased 17% to $1,437,597 from
$1,228,857 over the same period, largely due
to continued strength at the upper end of the
market. In the median sales price by quintile
analysis, the fifth quintile increased 24.8% yearover-
year, while the remainder of the market
segments showed modest change and mixed
results over the same period…
Housing prices were mixed – median sales price unchanged 0% but average sales price fell 5.4%. The drop in mortgage rates shifted mix to lower priced homes.
Pending sales unexpectedly jumped from year ago levels (+21.2%) as mild winter weather brought consumers into the market earlier than usual.
The luxury market was somewhat weaker than the overall market. Luxury median price slipped 2.6% year over year.
Listing inventory was also down (4.1%) as sellers were more cautious about listing their homes.
Properties taking somewhat longer to sell and there is a little more negotiability on price between buyer and seller (days on market and listing discount expanded)
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Although the number of sales slipped 1.2% from
prior year levels, the mild winter weather brought
an unexpected surge in first quarter pending
sales. There were 5,209 signed contracts
outstanding in the first quarter, 21.2% more
than 4,297 in the prior year quarter. The unusual
amount of pending sales activity this quarter may
temper the levels of the second quarter, typically
a high water mark for sales activity each year.
Listing inventory slipped 4.1% to 20,358, the
lowest first quarter total in six years…
Listing inventory fell sharply from the same period last year and is now below the five year average. Falling inventory has helped the market stabilize and caused the listing discount to compress.
Housing prices slipped below year ago levels, largely due to the increased market share of lower priced co-op sales. While all types saw a decline, the share for co-ops expanded. The housing market is currently characterized as stable.
New development continues to see consistent market share. The 1Q12 market share of 15.2% is consistent with the 15.7% four year average.
Properties took one month longer to sell in the first quarter than in the same period last year. Part of the increase is contrarian – it is attributable to tight inventory forcing more older listings to be absorbed.
The East Brooklyn area saw a sharp gain in market share to 18.6% of the borough from 10.3% in the year ago quarter largely because of the increased amount of distressed activity.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Housing prices slipped from prior year levels,
largely due to the shift in mix of property types
that sold over the quarter. The sharp decline
in mortgage rates to record lows resulted in
an increase in co-op sales market share, a
lower priced property type. Median sales price
declined 5.3% to $450,000 from $475,000 in
the same period last year. Average sales price
slipped 0.8% to $565,291 from $569,799 over
the same period. Listing discount, the difference
between the list price at the time of contract and
the sales price, was 3.5% tighter than 4.8% in
the same period last year The number of sales fell 23.9% to 1,807 from a
three year high of 2,373 in the prior year quarter.
Listing inventory also saw a large decline, falling
16.7% to 6,092 from 7,316 in the same period
last year. As a result the absorption rate, the
number of months to sell all active inventory
at the current pace of sales, increased to 10.1
months from 9.2 months over the same period…
Entry-level apartment sales continued to surge as buyers took advantage of record low mortgage rates.
New development market share expanded to 7.3%, the second highest share since Lehman (2Q 11 has an 8.9% share)
The sharp decline in inventory outpaced the decline in sales. As a result the absorption rate (number of months to sell all inventory at the current pace of sales) accelerated to 12.2 months from 15.7 months in the same period a year ago – the market was more efficient.
Price indicators slipped modestly – pulled down by the surge in lower priced sales in response to record low mortgage rates.
West Queens saw the largest gain in market share over the past year, followed by South Queens.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
There was a 16.2% decline in the number of
sales in the first quarter to 2,176, down from
2,598 in the prior year quarter despite the surge
in co-op sale market share. Co-ops represented
28.7% of all sales in the first quarter compared
to a 13.2% share of condo sales and a 58.1%
share of 1-3 family homes. The increase in coop
market share was largely caused by the
sharp drop in mortgage rates last fall. The entrylevel
market is more immediately responsive to
changes in mortgage rates. Listing inventory fell faster, declining 35% to 8,851 from 13,609 in the
prior year quarter. The result of declining sales
and more rapidly declining inventory resulted in a
sharp drop in the monthly absorption rate. In the
first quarter, the number of months to absorb all
active inventory at the current pace of sales was
12.2 months, more than 3 months more efficient
than the 15.7 month rate in the prior year quarter…
The reprieve from foreclosures a la robo-signing mortgage services/49 state AG agreement is probably over and we expect a ramp in market share. Currently non-distressed and distressed sales have a 50/50 share but should go back to 2/3, 1/3 over the next year. Still, the housing stock for typical distressed sales are much smaller on average so its not appropriate to rely on a “throw it all in one bucket” view of the market because of the shift in the mix. Non-distressed price indicators are are showing modest increases.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
The Miami housing market continued to be
largely two different market segments: distressed
sales, defined as short sales and foreclosures,
and non-distressed sales. The “robo-signing”
scandal in late 2010 and the recent settlement
agreement between the major loan servicers
and the government has kept a large supply of
distressed properties from entering the market over the past year-and-a-half. However, we
anticipate an increase in distressed sales activity
over the next few years. While distressed and
non-distressed sales are not separate types
of housing, distressed condos and 1-family
property sales averaged 26.3% and 31.1% more
square feet, respectively than their distressed
sale counterparts in the first quarter.
Rents continue to rise, but rather than being a leading indicator of an improving economy and sales market they are a reflection of an irrationally tight mortgage lending environment. Drivers of tight credit, namely low rates, rising foreclosures, more regulations and sliding housing prices are keeping underwriting standards above historical norms and as a result, driving more volume into the rental market driving rents higher. This is a national phenomenon, not just a Manhattan situation.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Year-over-year prices continued to
show strong gains as landlord concessions
declined. Median net effective rent was
$3,064 for the first quarter, 9.1% higher
than $2,808 in the prior year quarter.
Use of concessions fell to 11.1% winthin
all new rentals from 36.8% in the same
period last year. Rental price per square
foot increased to $52.57 in the first quarter,
reaching its highest level since the third
quarter of 2008, just as the credit crunch
began.
The market was a mixed bag this quarter. Weak but trying to stabilize. Overall prices trended lower but the luxury market posted strong gains over the same period last year. Inventory edged higher but was offset by sales rising enough to keep the monthly absorption rate unchanged. We expect inventory to expand over the next few years as foreclosures enter the market after last year’s robo-signing scandal held them off the market.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
There were 1,277 sales in the first quarter, 1.8%
more than 1,254 sales in the same period last
year. The market share for 1-family properties
expanded to 59.1% from 57.5% over the same
period. Condo market share edged up to 14.7%
of all sales from 14.4% in the prior year quarter.
Co-ops and 2-4-family properties declined over
the same period to a 5.6% and 20.5% market
share, respectively. In the 1-family market, the
Northeast and South-Central regions showed
large gains in market share of sales over the
past year, while the remaining four regions
experienced declines in market share.
After 6 quarters of talking “luxury this” and “$88M that,” we get to look at something new. The entry-level in Manhattan (studios and 1-bedrooms) saw it’s largest market share since 2009. If you recall, I dubbed 2009 as the “Year of the First Time Buyer” due to to falling mortgage rates post-Lehman and the federal homeowner tax credit for first time buyers. However be on the look out for excessive market hyperbole concerning bidding wars. The quarter didn’t kick in until late February after the pummeling the consumer received in the fall with a swirl of bad economic news and pressed the “pause” button. The late start in the season suggests a pretty robust 2nd quarter ahead.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Despite global economic turmoil last fall, the
housing market continued to show stability,
continuing a pattern that began in mid-
2009 after the credit crunch began. The
S&P’s downgrade of US debt, paired with
the European debt crisis, Wall Street bonus
concerns, and large swings in the stock market
indices all contributed to the market’s slowed
pace leading into the first quarter. As a result,
the number of sales slipped 3.5% to 2,311 from
2,394 in the prior year quarter. However, sales
levels began to rise during the middle of the first
quarter. The price indicators continued to show stability.
The median sales price slipped 0.9% to $775,000.
As I’ve mentioned before, we just launched this site and I am getting used to how it works under the hood. The data section will be updated shortly, if not by the time you read this. Charts may be a bit longer since I am doing some house cleaning.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, February 23, 2012, 5:49 PM 1 Comment
In one of the greatest column names ever devised during the illustrious history of the New York Times known as “The Appraisal” [wink], Elizabeth Harris, pens “Amid a Subway Project’s Dust and Noise, No Complaints About the Rent” about the war zone that is Second Avenue on the Upper East Side of Manhattan. I was on vacation when this was published earlier this week and I was forbidden to bring my laptop.
I was approached to try to take a stab at measuring the impact of the Second Avenue subway construction on the local housing market. Listen to the blasting.
Sales transactions move too slowly to capture the neighborhood impact since this is a relatively recent event of the past few years. So I looked at rents since they are smaller and more nimble.
Methodology
I divided a portion of the Upper East Side neighborhood into three zones (East 64th Street to East 96th Street) as follows:
The blocks to the east and west of Second Avenue (Third Avenue to First Avenue)
The blocks to the west of Third Avenue (to Fifth Avenue)
The blocks to the east of First Avenue (to East River)
I analyzed all the properties collected during our production of the The Elliman Report: Manhattan Rentals that actually rented in 2010 and 2011 and compared them. In a rental housing market that is seeing sharp gains in rents in the past year, I thought it would be interesting to see if there was a material difference in direction between the subway “zone” and everywhere else. I was only looking at “face” rents (the rent paid before deducting concessions) because I have more of that data.
And there was a difference.
In fact, the subway zone showed a 1.7% decline in median rent year-over-year, a 3.2% increase to the west and a 2% increase to the east. And the number of rentals in the subway zone increased 9% while the areas to the west and east fell 5.1% and increased 2% respectively over the same period suggesting that increased affordability may be attracting tenants.
Construction was supposed to be completed by 2016, but now it looks like 2018 or longer.
A gigundo transfer station…
[Courtesy: NYT]
…and trucks carrying explosives [Turn your head to left when viewing photo]…
[Courtesy: NYT]
While I was on vacation, I was contacted by Eyewitness News to discuss my numbers on camera but that wasn’t possible – although the online story includes no mention of the source of the results, the video did provide proper credit.
Thoughts
As time moves closer to completion some buyers may benefit from upside given how unpleasant some blocks are right now. The construction will likely provide downward pressure on housing prices in the near term but those along the zone will likely catch-up and perhaps even benefit from the transportation upgrade.
As a general rule, neighborhood property values tend to be higher in the west and lower in the east. It’s also possible that the price midpoint may shift further to the east than it is now once construction is completed.
Location specifics aside, additional subway access to and from the neighborhood should prove to be a tremendous asset to property owners in that area over the long run.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, February 2, 2012, 10:25 PM 2 Comments
We released our report on the Manhattan co-op/condo market for 2002-2011 this morning. This report is 60 pages of data bliss as far as I’m concerned. More than 100,000 sales collected, cleaned, sliced, whipped chopped and pureed.
Absolutely love the cover photo the graphics people selected.
I’ve been authoring this market report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
Co-ops and condos consistently account for roughly 98% of Manhattan residential sales. Manhattan is primarily a rental market and single family sales are a very specific high end niche market.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
The number of sales remained above the 10,000 sale threshold for the second consecutive year and for the fourth time in the decade. There were 10,161 sales in 2011, the third highest total of the decade. The total was 1% above the prior year total of 10,060, but 24.3% below the 2007 housing boom peak of 13,430. The weakest period of sales activity for the decade was in 2009, the year after the “Lehman tipping point” in late 2008, when the credit crunch and low consumer confidence stifled sales activity. The second weakest period surprisingly occurred in 2005, after affordability fell sharply with the highest pace of price appreciation in the decade. The last two years of the decade saw the most sales of 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom apartments as the market benefited from unstable global economic conditions. Foreign buyers and the wealthy continued to seek financial refuge in the high-end Manhattan housing market.
The custom data tables are updated and ready for you to play with. The chart section on the new site remains a work in progress.
Had a fun interview with Tom and Sara this morning on the always MUST watch/listen Bloomberg Surveillance. We talked housing, rentals, vacancy and inventory. An added bonus was the addition of Adam Davidson – co-founder and co-host of Planet Money... Read More
