Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 19, 2012, 4:39 PM
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We published our report on Brooklyn sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
Here are some takeaways:
- Listing inventory fell sharply from the same period last year and is now below the five year average. Falling inventory has helped the market stabilize and caused the listing discount to compress.
- Housing prices slipped below year ago levels, largely due to the increased market share of lower priced co-op sales. While all types saw a decline, the share for co-ops expanded. The housing market is currently characterized as stable.
- New development continues to see consistent market share. The 1Q12 market share of 15.2% is consistent with the 15.7% four year average.
- Properties took one month longer to sell in the first quarter than in the same period last year. Part of the increase is contrarian – it is attributable to tight inventory forcing more older listings to be absorbed.
- The East Brooklyn area saw a sharp gain in market share to 18.6% of the borough from 10.3% in the year ago quarter largely because of the increased amount of distressed activity.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Housing prices slipped from prior year levels,
largely due to the shift in mix of property types
that sold over the quarter. The sharp decline
in mortgage rates to record lows resulted in
an increase in co-op sales market share, a
lower priced property type. Median sales price
declined 5.3% to $450,000 from $475,000 in
the same period last year. Average sales price
slipped 0.8% to $565,291 from $569,799 over
the same period. Listing discount, the difference
between the list price at the time of contract and
the sales price, was 3.5% tighter than 4.8% in
the same period last year The number of sales fell 23.9% to 1,807 from a
three year high of 2,373 in the prior year quarter.
Listing inventory also saw a large decline, falling
16.7% to 6,092 from 7,316 in the same period
last year. As a result the absorption rate, the
number of months to sell all active inventory
at the current pace of sales, increased to 10.1
months from 9.2 months over the same period…
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Brooklyn markets and I am updating the charts and will place them here. You can also see other market areas and other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, April 13, 2012, 11:30 AM
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We published our report on the Miami sales market for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994 and added this regional report last year (but have historical data back to 2006).
The reprieve from foreclosures a la robo-signing mortgage services/49 state AG agreement is probably over and we expect a ramp in market share. Currently non-distressed and distressed sales have a 50/50 share but should go back to 2/3, 1/3 over the next year. Still, the housing stock for typical distressed sales are much smaller on average so its not appropriate to rely on a “throw it all in one bucket” view of the market because of the shift in the mix. Non-distressed price indicators are are showing modest increases.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
The Miami housing market continued to be
largely two different market segments: distressed
sales, defined as short sales and foreclosures,
and non-distressed sales. The “robo-signing”
scandal in late 2010 and the recent settlement
agreement between the major loan servicers
and the government has kept a large supply of
distressed properties from entering the market over the past year-and-a-half. However, we
anticipate an increase in distressed sales activity
over the next few years. While distressed and
non-distressed sales are not separate types
of housing, distressed condos and 1-family
property sales averaged 26.3% and 31.1% more
square feet, respectively than their distressed
sale counterparts in the first quarter.
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Manhattan rental market. I will be updating the chart section shortly. In the meantime you can see other market areas and some other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 12, 2012, 11:56 AM
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We published our report on the Manhattan rental market for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994 and added this regional report three years ago (but have over 20 years of historical behind it).
Rents continue to rise, but rather than being a leading indicator of an improving economy and sales market they are a reflection of an irrationally tight mortgage lending environment. Drivers of tight credit, namely low rates, rising foreclosures, more regulations and sliding housing prices are keeping underwriting standards above historical norms and as a result, driving more volume into the rental market driving rents higher. This is a national phenomenon, not just a Manhattan situation.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Year-over-year prices continued to
show strong gains as landlord concessions
declined. Median net effective rent was
$3,064 for the first quarter, 9.1% higher
than $2,808 in the prior year quarter.
Use of concessions fell to 11.1% winthin
all new rentals from 36.8% in the same
period last year. Rental price per square
foot increased to $52.57 in the first quarter,
reaching its highest level since the third
quarter of 2008, just as the credit crunch
began.
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Manhattan rental market. I will be updating the chart section shortly. In the meantime you can see other market areas and some other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).
* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Manhattan Rentals [Miller Samuel]
* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Manhattan Rentals [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, April 3, 2012, 12:57 PM
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[click to expand]
The Elliman report for the 1Q 2012 Manhattan Market that I author was released today and there was a lot of commentary thrown around that I thought I’d apply actual data to. They relate to the topic of “bidding wars” and some sort of upward price skew cause by the closing of the $88M sale this quarter (contract signed in December).
More “bidding wars”
What’s being projected as market conditions The chart above is my attempt to quantify this phenomenon. When a property is sold above the list price at the time of contract, then it’s reasonable to assume there was intense competition between buyers that drove the property over list aka “bidding war”. I doubt there are many buyers on earth who would pay over list price unless there is more to the story.
What’s our take on the story? We estimate that 8.4% of all sales in the quarter were sold above list price and therefore were subject to a “bidding war.” However it’s probably a bit higher than that since 11% of the sale sold for list price. There might have been a bidding war up to the list price and the buyer with the best terms (i.e. cash) won the bid. However I would not characterize the market as rampant with bidding war activity right now. It’s been steadily rising since 2Q 2009 but still remains about half the levels seen just before the credit crunch began in 2008.
The $88M sale skewed the overall numbers higher
What’s being said about the record sale’s impact to the market results The record sale at 15 Central Park West closed for $88M during 1Q 2012 and there was concern that this simply skewed the numbers and overstated the results.
What’s our take on the story? This is not the case. When removing the $88M sale from the mix, the median sales price of $775k remains unchanged. That’s because median sales price slices from the top and bottom until it meets in the middle. There were 10 sales that sold for $775,000 this quarter and therefore the removal of this high sale had no impact on the middle. Average sales price was skewed 2.7% higher than it would otherwise would have been. Still not a big deal and it would be inappropriate to remove the $88M from the data set – otherwise the $48M and $36M sale in the year ago quarter would also need to be purged.
It is what it is.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, April 3, 2012, 8:58 AM
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We published our report on Manhattan market sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been writing them for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
After 6 quarters of talking “luxury this” and “$88M that,” we get to look at something new. The entry-level in Manhattan (studios and 1-bedrooms) saw it’s largest market share since 2009. If you recall, I dubbed 2009 as the “Year of the First Time Buyer” due to to falling mortgage rates post-Lehman and the federal homeowner tax credit for first time buyers. However be on the look out for excessive market hyperbole concerning bidding wars. The quarter didn’t kick in until late February after the pummeling the consumer received in the fall with a swirl of bad economic news and pressed the “pause” button. The late start in the season suggests a pretty robust 2nd quarter ahead.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Despite global economic turmoil last fall, the
housing market continued to show stability,
continuing a pattern that began in mid-
2009 after the credit crunch began. The
S&P’s downgrade of US debt, paired with
the European debt crisis, Wall Street bonus
concerns, and large swings in the stock market
indices all contributed to the market’s slowed
pace leading into the first quarter. As a result,
the number of sales slipped 3.5% to 2,311 from
2,394 in the prior year quarter. However, sales
levels began to rise during the middle of the first
quarter. The price indicators continued to show stability.
The median sales price slipped 0.9% to $775,000.
As I’ve mentioned before, we just launched this site and I am getting used to how it works under the hood. The data section will be updated shortly, if not by the time you read this. Charts may be a bit longer since I am doing some house cleaning.
Here’s the press coverage for the report today.
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, February 2, 2012, 10:25 PM
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We released our report on the Manhattan co-op/condo market for 2002-2011 this morning. This report is 60 pages of data bliss as far as I’m concerned. More than 100,000 sales collected, cleaned, sliced, whipped chopped and pureed.
Absolutely love the cover photo the graphics people selected.
I’ve been authoring this market report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
Co-ops and condos consistently account for roughly 98% of Manhattan residential sales. Manhattan is primarily a rental market and single family sales are a very specific high end niche market.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
The number of sales remained above the 10,000 sale threshold for the second consecutive year and for the fourth time in the decade. There were 10,161 sales in 2011, the third highest total of the decade. The total was 1% above the prior year total of 10,060, but 24.3% below the 2007 housing boom peak of 13,430. The weakest period of sales activity for the decade was in 2009, the year after the “Lehman tipping point” in late 2008, when the credit crunch and low consumer confidence stifled sales activity. The second weakest period surprisingly occurred in 2005, after affordability fell sharply with the highest pace of price appreciation in the decade. The last two years of the decade saw the most sales of 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom apartments as the market benefited from unstable global economic conditions. Foreign buyers and the wealthy continued to seek financial refuge in the high-end Manhattan housing market.
The custom data tables are updated and ready for you to play with. The chart section on the new site remains a work in progress.
The Elliman Report: Manhattan Decade 2002-2011 (Co-ops+Condos) [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: Manhattan Decade 2002-2011 (Co-ops+Condos [Miller Samuel]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, February 2, 2012, 10:10 PM
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We released our report on the Manhattan Townhouse Market for 2002-2011 this morning. I define a “townhouse” as a 1-5 family house that can be delivered vacant. It’s one of my favorite reports to work on because the market is so unique.
One of the things that drives the 2-family and 3-5 family markets are owner/users. Purchasers rarely view these properties as vehicles for cash flow – in appraisal parlance, their “highest and best use” is eventual conversion to single family occupancy.
I’ve been authoring this market report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
The market consistently accounts for roughly 2% of Manhattan residential sales – it’s a high end niche market.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
The Manhattan housing market saw the largest
number of sales since the credit crunch began,
reaching a yearly sales level consistent with the
annual average of the past decade. The robust
apartment rental market influenced the gain in
2-family and 3-5 family market share as 1-family
market share slipped over the past year. The
jump in market share of lower priced multi-family
sales pulled the price indicators lower. Listing
inventory as well as days on market expanded
year-over-year as all price indicators slipped.
The townhouse price indicators were more than
double their respective 2002 levels. East Side
and West Side market share of Manhattan sales
fell as Downtown and Uptown market share
expanded over the same period.
The custom data tables are updated and ready for you to play with. The chart section on the new site remains a work in progress.
The Elliman Report: Manhattan Townhouses 2002-2011 [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: Manhattan Townhouses 2002-2011 [Miller Samuel]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, January 26, 2012, 11:40 AM
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We released our report on the Long Island sales market for 4Q 2011 this morning. I’ve been authoring this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
We also published a companion report, The Hamptons & North Fork Decade 2002-2011 with a revised format, to lay out out the market in context over an expanded window of time.
Here’s an excerpt from the 4Q 2011 report:
There were 541 sales in the fourth quarter, 0.6%
more than 538 sales in the prior year quarter and
prior quarter. The level of sales remained above
the 5-year average of 484 sales. Despite the
relative stability of sales, the number of available
listings fell sharply. There were 1,728 listings
available at the end of the fourth quarter, 25%
less than 2,303 listings at the end of the same
quarter last year.
Despite the decline in listing inventory and
stability of sales, days on market and listing
discount expanded over the year. Days on
market, the number of days from the last price
change to contract date, was 201 days, 25 days
longer than 176 days in the prior year quarter.
Listing discount, the percentage difference
between the list price at time of contract and the
sales price, increased to 13.4% from 9.3% in the
prior year quarter.
Median sales price was $675,000, down 7.5%
from $730,000 in the prior year quarter. Average
sales price followed the same pattern with a
decline of 16.2% to $1,335,884 from $1,594,785
in the same period last year. The price indicators
in the prior year quarter were pressed upward
from the high end skew caused by concern over
the potential expiration of the Bush tax cuts
and rise in capital gains rate. Buyers and sellers
rushed to close before the end of 2010.
The custom data tables are updated and ready for you to play with. The chart section on the new site remains a work in progress.
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Hamptons & North Fork Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 2002-2011 Hamptons & North Fork Sales Decade [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Hamptons & North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2002-2011 Hamptons & North Fork Decade [Miller Samuel]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, January 26, 2012, 10:32 AM
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We released our report on the Long Island sales market for 4Q 2011 this morning. I’ve been authoring this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
We also published a companion report, The Long Island Decade 2002-2011 is the first of its kind, to lay out out the market in context over an expanded window of time.
Long Island remains weak, but considering the turmoil of the fall that began with the S&P downgrade of US debt in August that lead to significant volatility in the financial markets and the European debt crisis, this uncertainty resulted in a modest decline in housing prices and a nominal decline in sales activity. However this weakness has been a continuing trend.
Here’s an excerpt from the 4Q 2011 report:
Housing prices slipped in the fourth quarter,
dipping below prior year levels. Median sales
price was $339,000 in the fourth quarter, 4.8%
below $356,050 in the same period last year.
Average sales price showed a similar trend,
declining 5.1% over the same period to $412,060
from $434,424 in the prior year quarter.
The number of sales for the quarter totaled
4,222, essentially unchanged from the 4,252
total of the same quarter last year. However,
pending sales declined 7% to 4,134 from 4,447
over the same period. Listing inventory slipped
1.6% over the year to 18,447 from 18,742 in the
prior year quarter. During the fall, housing market
participants were confronted with a series
of economic woes, such as financial market
volatility after the S&P rating agency downgraded
US debt last August, and the financial crisis in
Europe. As a result, they appeared to press the
“pause” button, taking longer to make decisions
and waiting until more time had passed before
returning to the market.
The custom data tables are updated and ready for you to play with. The chart section on the new site remains a work in progress.
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Long Island Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 2002-2011 Long Island Decade [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2002-2011 Long Island Decade [Miller Samuel]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, January 19, 2012, 10:17 AM
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We released our report on the Brooklyn sales market for 4Q 2011 this morning. I’ve been authoring this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994. This report is the first to provide comprehensive insight and analysis for both counties beyond standard MLS stats.
Overall Westchester price indicators were mixed while the number of sales slipped from the same period a year ago. Overall sales were up but single family sales fell 5.4%. Sales of Westchester 1 families comprised 57% of all county residential sales, their lowest market share in 30 years (as far back as the data goes). Over the last few years there have been quarters that have been close. The uptick in everything else (lower priced or rent driven) caused the low market share. Putnam showed a jump in overall sales while the price indicators were mixed.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
The price indicators for the quarter were partially
mixed partially, as a result of a significant variance
caused by the surge in entry-level co-op sales.
The average square footage of a residential sale
was 2,082, down 2.8% from 2,143 in the same
period last year. As a result of the decline in size
and shift in the mix to smaller sales, the fourth
quarter median sales price and average sales
price were nearly identical. The median sales
price of a Westchester residential sale was
$525,000, up 16.7% from $450,000 in the prior
year quarter. The average sales price showed
the opposite trend, falling 9% to $524,722 from
$576,512 in the prior year quarter.
The custom data tables are updated and ready for you to play with. The chart section on the new site remains a work in progress.
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
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