Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 2:36 PM
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We published our report on Hamptons/North Fork sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
Here are some takeaways:
- Overall housing prices (median sales price up 1.2% ) continued to show stability.
- The luxury market showed larger year over year increases in the price indicators than the overall market.
- Number of sales were up nominally from same period last year (0.5%).
- Listing inventory is down sharply year over year (down 17.5%) – home sellers are more cautious about entering the market (ie sales flat but inventory falling).
- Properties taking somewhat longer to sell and there is a little more negotiability on price between buyer and seller (days on market and listing discount expanded)
- Despite strength in prices at high end, we saw an uptick in market share of sub-million sales – the decline in mortgage rates and warm weather brought buyers out sooner.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Median sales price edged up 1.2% to $630,000
from $622,500 in the prior year quarter. Average
sales price increased 17% to $1,437,597 from
$1,228,857 over the same period, largely due
to continued strength at the upper end of the
market. In the median sales price by quintile
analysis, the fifth quintile increased 24.8% yearover-
year, while the remainder of the market
segments showed modest change and mixed
results over the same period…
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables and view charts on the market.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 2:20 PM
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We published our report on Long Island sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
Here are some takeaways:
- Housing prices were mixed – median sales price unchanged 0% but average sales price fell 5.4%. The drop in mortgage rates shifted mix to lower priced homes.
- Pending sales unexpectedly jumped from year ago levels (+21.2%) as mild winter weather brought consumers into the market earlier than usual.
- The luxury market was somewhat weaker than the overall market. Luxury median price slipped 2.6% year over year.
- Listing inventory was also down (4.1%) as sellers were more cautious about listing their homes.
- Properties taking somewhat longer to sell and there is a little more negotiability on price between buyer and seller (days on market and listing discount expanded)
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Although the number of sales slipped 1.2% from
prior year levels, the mild winter weather brought
an unexpected surge in first quarter pending
sales. There were 5,209 signed contracts
outstanding in the first quarter, 21.2% more
than 4,297 in the prior year quarter. The unusual
amount of pending sales activity this quarter may
temper the levels of the second quarter, typically
a high water mark for sales activity each year.
Listing inventory slipped 4.1% to 20,358, the
lowest first quarter total in six years…
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables and view charts on the market.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 19, 2012, 4:39 PM
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We published our report on Brooklyn sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
Here are some takeaways:
- Listing inventory fell sharply from the same period last year and is now below the five year average. Falling inventory has helped the market stabilize and caused the listing discount to compress.
- Housing prices slipped below year ago levels, largely due to the increased market share of lower priced co-op sales. While all types saw a decline, the share for co-ops expanded. The housing market is currently characterized as stable.
- New development continues to see consistent market share. The 1Q12 market share of 15.2% is consistent with the 15.7% four year average.
- Properties took one month longer to sell in the first quarter than in the same period last year. Part of the increase is contrarian – it is attributable to tight inventory forcing more older listings to be absorbed.
- The East Brooklyn area saw a sharp gain in market share to 18.6% of the borough from 10.3% in the year ago quarter largely because of the increased amount of distressed activity.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Housing prices slipped from prior year levels,
largely due to the shift in mix of property types
that sold over the quarter. The sharp decline
in mortgage rates to record lows resulted in
an increase in co-op sales market share, a
lower priced property type. Median sales price
declined 5.3% to $450,000 from $475,000 in
the same period last year. Average sales price
slipped 0.8% to $565,291 from $569,799 over
the same period. Listing discount, the difference
between the list price at the time of contract and
the sales price, was 3.5% tighter than 4.8% in
the same period last year The number of sales fell 23.9% to 1,807 from a
three year high of 2,373 in the prior year quarter.
Listing inventory also saw a large decline, falling
16.7% to 6,092 from 7,316 in the same period
last year. As a result the absorption rate, the
number of months to sell all active inventory
at the current pace of sales, increased to 10.1
months from 9.2 months over the same period…
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Brooklyn markets and I am updating the charts and will place them here. You can also see other market areas and other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, April 16, 2012, 6:00 AM
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[click to expand]
One of the big issues in following the rental market over the past couple of years has been the disparity between the rental rate of the lease and the actual rent paid by the tenant. Here’s the difference:
Face Rent the formal or gross rent amount on the lease before any concessions offered by the landlord (i.e. free rent, paid commissions, etc.)
Net Effective Rent the face rent less the concessions offered by the landlord (i.e. free rent, paid commissions, etc.)
In periods with high rates of landlord concessions, the face rent trends much higher than what tenants are actually paying (net effective rent). This was clearly the case in 2009 and 2010.
The disparity really bothered me so I figured out a way to track this information and Douglas Elliman’s rental division helped me capture it on a very large sample size of the market. To date we’re the only source of this metric, but to the consumer’s benefit, it now doesn’t matter a whole lot anymore (sigh).
Back in 2009, 2010, landlords were routinely paying concessions of 2-3 months of free rent in 2/3 of all leases. Now it’s about 1 month of free rent in about 1 out of 10 leases. In other words, it’s a nominal phenomenon (good name for a rock band). The chart above shows that the two trends have come together.
But when the rental market weakens (in a few years when credit eases), the lines will begin to diverge again and we’ll still be tracking it.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 12, 2012, 11:56 AM
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We published our report on the Manhattan rental market for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994 and added this regional report three years ago (but have over 20 years of historical behind it).
Rents continue to rise, but rather than being a leading indicator of an improving economy and sales market they are a reflection of an irrationally tight mortgage lending environment. Drivers of tight credit, namely low rates, rising foreclosures, more regulations and sliding housing prices are keeping underwriting standards above historical norms and as a result, driving more volume into the rental market driving rents higher. This is a national phenomenon, not just a Manhattan situation.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
Year-over-year prices continued to
show strong gains as landlord concessions
declined. Median net effective rent was
$3,064 for the first quarter, 9.1% higher
than $2,808 in the prior year quarter.
Use of concessions fell to 11.1% winthin
all new rentals from 36.8% in the same
period last year. Rental price per square
foot increased to $52.57 in the first quarter,
reaching its highest level since the third
quarter of 2008, just as the credit crunch
began.
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Manhattan rental market. I will be updating the chart section shortly. In the meantime you can see other market areas and some other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).
* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Manhattan Rentals [Miller Samuel]
* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Manhattan Rentals [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 12, 2012, 10:55 AM
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We published our report on Westchester/Putnam market sales for 1Q 2012 this morning. I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994 and added this regional report about a year ago (but have about 30 years of historical behind it).
The market was a mixed bag this quarter. Weak but trying to stabilize. Overall prices trended lower but the luxury market posted strong gains over the same period last year. Inventory edged higher but was offset by sales rising enough to keep the monthly absorption rate unchanged. We expect inventory to expand over the next few years as foreclosures enter the market after last year’s robo-signing scandal held them off the market.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
There were 1,277 sales in the first quarter, 1.8%
more than 1,254 sales in the same period last
year. The market share for 1-family properties
expanded to 59.1% from 57.5% over the same
period. Condo market share edged up to 14.7%
of all sales from 14.4% in the prior year quarter.
Co-ops and 2-4-family properties declined over
the same period to a 5.6% and 20.5% market
share, respectively. In the 1-family market, the
Northeast and South-Central regions showed
large gains in market share of sales over the
past year, while the remaining four regions
experienced declines in market share.
I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Westchester and Putnam markets. I haven’t added charts for this region yet but they are coming. In the meantime you can see other market areas and some other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).
* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
