Translating Miami Real Estate Into Spanish & Portuguese, 1Q 2012 Edition

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 3:39 PM
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Miami-based Douglas Elliman has had my Miami market report handiwork translated to both Spanish and Portuguese to better serve their South American clientele. Market demand from South America has been a significant force over the past year and a half. The weak US dollar continues to be one of the factors driving housing demand in Miami and one of the key reasons why the non-distressed market continues to thrive.

Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish)Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese)

[click to open reports]

I took five years of French in high school so it’s a bit disorientating to see my analysis translated, but very cool at the same time. We are expanding our South Florida market analysis significantly over the next several months (no, France is not on the rollout list…yet).

• Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish) 1Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
  
• Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese) 1Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
  
• Elliman Report: Miami Sales (English) 1Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]

[Stable and Sandy] 1Q 2012 Hamptons/North Fork Sales Report

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 2:36 PM
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We published our report on Hamptons/North Fork sales for 1Q 2012 this morning.   I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Here are some takeaways:

• Overall housing prices (median sales price up 1.2% ) continued to show stability.
• The luxury market showed larger year over year increases in the price indicators than the overall market.
• Number of sales were up nominally from same period last year (0.5%).
• Listing inventory is down sharply year over year (down 17.5%) – home sellers are more cautious about entering the market (ie sales flat but inventory falling).
• Properties taking somewhat longer to sell and there is a little more negotiability on price between buyer and seller (days on market and listing discount expanded)
• Despite strength in prices at high end, we saw an uptick in market share of sub-million sales – the decline in mortgage rates and warm weather brought buyers out sooner.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

Median sales price edged up 1.2% to $630,000 from $622,500 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price increased 17% to $1,437,597 from $1,228,857 over the same period, largely due to continued strength at the upper end of the market. In the median sales price by quintile analysis, the fifth quintile increased 24.8% yearover- year, while the remainder of the market segments showed modest change and mixed results over the same period…

I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables and view charts on the market.

• The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Hamptons/North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
  
• The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Hamptons/North Fork Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

[Warm Weather Pendings] 1Q 2012 Long Island Sales Report

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 2:20 PM
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We published our report on Long Island sales for 1Q 2012 this morning.   I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Here are some takeaways:

• Housing prices were mixed – median sales price unchanged 0% but average sales price fell 5.4%. The drop in mortgage rates shifted mix to lower priced homes.
• Pending sales unexpectedly jumped from year ago levels (+21.2%) as mild winter weather brought consumers into the market earlier than usual.
• The luxury market was somewhat weaker than the overall market. Luxury median price slipped 2.6% year over year.
• Listing inventory was also down (4.1%) as sellers were more cautious about listing their homes.
• Properties taking somewhat longer to sell and there is a little more negotiability on price between buyer and seller (days on market and listing discount expanded)

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

Although the number of sales slipped 1.2% from prior year levels, the mild winter weather brought an unexpected surge in first quarter pending sales. There were 5,209 signed contracts outstanding in the first quarter, 21.2% more than 4,297 in the prior year quarter. The unusual amount of pending sales activity this quarter may temper the levels of the second quarter, typically a high water mark for sales activity each year. Listing inventory slipped 4.1% to 20,358, the lowest first quarter total in six years…

I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables and view charts on the market.

• The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
  
• The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

[Shiftin' Mix] 1Q 2012 Brooklyn Sales Report

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 19, 2012, 4:39 PM
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We published our report on Brooklyn sales for 1Q 2012 this morning.   I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Here are some takeaways:

• Listing inventory fell sharply from the same period last year and is now below the five year average. Falling inventory has helped the market stabilize and caused the listing discount to compress.
• Housing prices slipped below year ago levels, largely due to the increased market share of lower priced co-op sales. While all types saw a decline, the share for co-ops expanded. The housing market is currently characterized as stable.
• New development continues to see consistent market share. The 1Q12 market share of 15.2% is consistent with the 15.7% four year average.
• Properties took one month longer to sell in the first quarter than in the same period last year. Part of the increase is contrarian – it is attributable to tight inventory forcing more older listings to be absorbed.
• The East Brooklyn area saw a sharp gain in market share to 18.6% of the borough from 10.3% in the year ago quarter largely because of the increased amount of distressed activity.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

Housing prices slipped from prior year levels, largely due to the shift in mix of property types that sold over the quarter. The sharp decline in mortgage rates to record lows resulted in an increase in co-op sales market share, a lower priced property type. Median sales price declined 5.3% to $450,000 from $475,000 in the same period last year. Average sales price slipped 0.8% to $565,291 from $569,799 over the same period. Listing discount, the difference between the list price at the time of contract and the sales price, was 3.5% tighter than 4.8% in the same period last year The number of sales fell 23.9% to 1,807 from a three year high of 2,373 in the prior year quarter. Listing inventory also saw a large decline, falling 16.7% to 6,092 from 7,316 in the same period last year. As a result the absorption rate, the number of months to sell all active inventory at the current pace of sales, increased to 10.1 months from 9.2 months over the same period…

I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Brooklyn markets and I am updating the charts and will place them here. You can also see other market areas and other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).

• The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Brooklyn Sales [Miller Samuel]
  
• The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Brooklyn Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

[Trying, Stabilizing] 1Q 2012 Queens Sales Report

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 19, 2012, 3:59 PM
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We published our report on Queens sales for 1Q 2012 this morning.   I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Here are some takeaways:

• Entry-level apartment sales continued to surge as buyers took advantage of record low mortgage rates.
• New development market share expanded to 7.3%, the second highest share since Lehman (2Q 11 has an 8.9% share)
• The sharp decline in inventory outpaced the decline in sales. As a result the absorption rate (number of months to sell all inventory at the current pace of sales) accelerated to 12.2 months from 15.7 months in the same period a year ago – the market was more efficient.
• Price indicators slipped modestly – pulled down by the surge in lower priced sales in response to record low mortgage rates.
• West Queens saw the largest gain in market share over the past year, followed by South Queens.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

There was a 16.2% decline in the number of sales in the first quarter to 2,176, down from 2,598 in the prior year quarter despite the surge in co-op sale market share. Co-ops represented 28.7% of all sales in the first quarter compared to a 13.2% share of condo sales and a 58.1% share of 1-3 family homes. The increase in coop market share was largely caused by the sharp drop in mortgage rates last fall. The entrylevel market is more immediately responsive to changes in mortgage rates. Listing inventory fell faster, declining 35% to 8,851 from 13,609 in the prior year quarter. The result of declining sales and more rapidly declining inventory resulted in a sharp drop in the monthly absorption rate. In the first quarter, the number of months to absorb all active inventory at the current pace of sales was 12.2 months, more than 3 months more efficient than the 15.7 month rate in the prior year quarter…

I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Queens markets and I just updated the all the charts for Queens. You can also see other market areas and other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).

• The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Queens Sales [Miller Samuel]
  
• The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Queens Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

[Not Distressing] 1Q 2012 Miami Sales Report

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Friday, April 13, 2012, 11:30 AM
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We published our report on the Miami sales market for 1Q 2012 this morning.   I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994 and added this regional report last year (but have historical data back to 2006).

The reprieve from foreclosures a la robo-signing mortgage services/49 state AG agreement is probably over and we expect a ramp in market share. Currently non-distressed and distressed sales have a 50/50 share but should go back to 2/3, 1/3 over the next year. Still, the housing stock for typical distressed sales are much smaller on average so its not appropriate to rely on a “throw it all in one bucket” view of the market because of the shift in the mix. Non-distressed price indicators are are showing modest increases.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

The Miami housing market continued to be largely two different market segments: distressed sales, defined as short sales and foreclosures, and non-distressed sales. The “robo-signing” scandal in late 2010 and the recent settlement agreement between the major loan servicers and the government has kept a large supply of distressed properties from entering the market over the past year-and-a-half. However, we anticipate an increase in distressed sales activity over the next few years. While distressed and non-distressed sales are not separate types of housing, distressed condos and 1-family property sales averaged 26.3% and 31.1% more square feet, respectively than their distressed sale counterparts in the first quarter.

I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Manhattan rental market. I will be updating the chart section shortly. In the meantime you can see other market areas and some other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).

• The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Miami Sales [Miller Samuel]
  
• The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Miami Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
  
• The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Miami Sales [Douglas Elliman Florida]

[Tight Credit] 1Q 2012 Manhattan Rental Report

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 12, 2012, 11:56 AM
1 Comment

We published our report on the Manhattan rental market for 1Q 2012 this morning.   I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994 and added this regional report three years ago (but have over 20 years of historical behind it).

Rents continue to rise, but rather than being a leading indicator of an improving economy and sales market they are a reflection of an irrationally tight mortgage lending environment. Drivers of tight credit, namely low rates, rising foreclosures, more regulations and sliding housing prices are keeping underwriting standards above historical norms and as a result, driving more volume into the rental market driving rents higher. This is a national phenomenon, not just a Manhattan situation.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

Year-over-year prices continued to show strong gains as landlord concessions declined. Median net effective rent was $3,064 for the first quarter, 9.1% higher than $2,808 in the prior year quarter. Use of concessions fell to 11.1% winthin all new rentals from 36.8% in the same period last year. Rental price per square foot increased to $52.57 in the first quarter, reaching its highest level since the third quarter of 2008, just as the credit crunch began.

I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Manhattan rental market. I will be updating the chart section shortly. In the meantime you can see other market areas and some other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).

* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Manhattan Rentals [Miller Samuel]
* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Manhattan Rentals [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

[High-end Strength] 1Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales Report

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 12, 2012, 10:55 AM
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We published our report on Westchester/Putnam market sales for 1Q 2012 this morning.   I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994 and added this regional report about a year ago (but have about 30 years of historical behind it).

The market was a mixed bag this quarter. Weak but trying to stabilize. Overall prices trended lower but the luxury market posted strong gains over the same period last year. Inventory edged higher but was offset by sales rising enough to keep the monthly absorption rate unchanged. We expect inventory to expand over the next few years as foreclosures enter the market after last year’s robo-signing scandal held them off the market.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

There were 1,277 sales in the first quarter, 1.8% more than 1,254 sales in the same period last year. The market share for 1-family properties expanded to 59.1% from 57.5% over the same period. Condo market share edged up to 14.7% of all sales from 14.4% in the prior year quarter. Co-ops and 2-4-family properties declined over the same period to a 5.6% and 20.5% market share, respectively. In the 1-family market, the Northeast and South-Central regions showed large gains in market share of sales over the past year, while the remaining four regions experienced declines in market share.

I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables on the Westchester and Putnam markets. I haven’t added charts for this region yet but they are coming. In the meantime you can see other market areas and some other generally cool housing market charts (IMHO).

* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
* The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

[Entry-Level Surge] 1Q 2012 Manhattan Sales Report

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, April 3, 2012, 8:58 AM
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We published our report on Manhattan market sales for 1Q 2012 this morning.   I’ve been writing them for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

After 6 quarters of talking “luxury this” and “$88M that,” we get to look at something new. The entry-level in Manhattan (studios and 1-bedrooms) saw it’s largest market share since 2009. If you recall, I dubbed 2009 as the “Year of the First Time Buyer” due to to falling mortgage rates post-Lehman and the federal homeowner tax credit for first time buyers. However be on the look out for excessive market hyperbole concerning bidding wars. The quarter didn’t kick in until late February after the pummeling the consumer received in the fall with a swirl of bad economic news and pressed the “pause” button. The late start in the season suggests a pretty robust 2nd quarter ahead.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

Despite global economic turmoil last fall, the housing market continued to show stability, continuing a pattern that began in mid- 2009 after the credit crunch began. The S&P’s downgrade of US debt, paired with the European debt crisis, Wall Street bonus concerns, and large swings in the stock market indices all contributed to the market’s slowed pace leading into the first quarter. As a result, the number of sales slipped 3.5% to 2,311 from 2,394 in the prior year quarter. However, sales levels began to rise during the middle of the first quarter. The price indicators continued to show stability. The median sales price slipped 0.9% to $775,000.

As I’ve mentioned before, we just launched this site and I am getting used to how it works under the hood. The data section will be updated shortly, if not by the time you read this. Charts may be a bit longer since I am doing some house cleaning.

Here’s the press coverage for the report today.

The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]