Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, January 12, 2012, 7:51 AM
We released our report on the Manhattan rental market for 4Q 2011 this morning. I’ve been authoring this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994. Douglas Elliman Florida is making waves in Miami. This report is the first of it’s kind, providing neutral insight for both the distressed and non-distressed housing markets (hint: they are different).
Overall prices increased largely because lower priced distressed sales continued to lose market share as the “robo-signing” scandal of late 2010 caused foreclosure volume to drop sharply as lenders and servicers got their paperwork act together to show they actually had the right to foreclose. It’s a temporary situation as volumes are expected to rise over the next several years. The US Dollar continues to drive demand for new development.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
The lack of differentiation between the distressed and non-distressed markets continued, despite the significant difference in housing stock. In the fourth quarter, the average size of a non-distressed condo sale was 24.7% larger than a distressed condo sale, and the average size of a non-distressed single family sale was 34.1% larger than a distressed single family sale.
There were 4,568 sales in the fourth quarter, the second highest fourth quarter total since the mid-decade market peak, and 6.1% less than last year’s fourth quarter. The average seasonal decline from third to fourth quarter has averaged 5.7%, yet the prior year quarter showed a 2.2% increase. This was likely due to the rush to close at the then end of 2010 out of concern that the Bush tax cuts might be eliminated.
The data tables will be updated shortly, if not by the time you read this. The chart section on the new site remains a work in progress.
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Miami Sales [Douglas Elliman Florida]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Miami Sales [Miller Samuel]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, January 4, 2012, 11:49 AM
We published our report on Manhattan market sales for 4Q 2011 this morning. I’ve been writing them for Douglas Elliman since 1994.
I’m thinking that 2012 may very well look a lot like 2011…stable prices and sales, but with a bias towards weakness and yet a sprinkling of trophy property sales. Not a lot on the table in terms of reasons to think economic conditions will improve in a meaningful way and or get worse in a significant way. Housing will lag the economy for the next few years with the legacy of idiotic credit conditions of days past.
The market may become sort of…well…boring.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
After a summer and fall of mixed economic news and uncertainty caused by geo-political events including the debt ceiling debate, the S&P downgrade of US debt, and the financial crisis in Europe, the Manhattan housing market experienced a slow down in the level of activity. However, overall price retained its stability. There were 2,011 sales in the fourth quarter, 12.4% less than 2,295 in the prior year quarter. The fourth quarter had the lowest number of sales since the same period six years ago, perhaps related to the unusual surge in sales in the third quarter. Co-op and condo sales returned to near equilibrium with co-ops comprising 49.5% market share and condos comprising 50.5% market share. The drop in mortgage rates caused by the S&P downgrade helped shift more demand to the entry-level market, which is generally more responsive to changes in mortgage rates. Entry-level apartments, namely studio and 1-bedrooms, were 51.3%, the highest level since 2009, which readily saw market share in excess of 50%, as first time buyers entered the market after the credit crunch began….
As I’ve mentioned before, we just launched this site and I am getting used to how it works under the hood. The data section will be updated shortly, if not by the time you read this. Charts may be a bit longer since I am doing some house cleaning.
Here’s the press coverage for the report today, it’s fairly broad reflecting the strong interest in this market as some sort of gauge for the region.
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]