Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, May 3, 2012, 2:42 PM
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[click to open press release]
Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist on the sales market:
“Housing prices have already bottomed with asking prices on the rise for three straight months. Aside from a stumble in December, asking prices have been stable or rising for the last eight months,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Prices have joined the recovery, alongside sales and construction. But foreclosures threaten prices, especially in judicial-foreclosure states like Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and New York, where many more distressed sales are still to come.”
on rental market:
“Rents have steadily increased as people who lost their homes in the crash became renters. At the same time, high unemployment and tight credit sidelined would-be homeowners,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “But relief for strapped renters may be in sight. Construction of multi-family buildings revved up last year. These new rental units will come to market later this year, giving renters more choices and less fierce competition.”
Here’s the April 2012 report and a breakdown of the largest metro areas.
The Trulia Price Monitor for April 2012 shows:
- Asking prices up 1.9% quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted.
- Asking prices up 0.5% month-over-month, seasonally adjusted. This is the third straight month of month-over-month increases.
- Asking prices up 0.2% year-over-year, the first year-over-year increase in the price index.
- Asking prices up quarter-over-quarter in 92 of the 100 largest metros.
The Trulia Rent Monitor for April 2012 shows:
- Rents up 5.6% year-over-year.
New York Metro - you can see how much faster the rental market is rising over the sales market. In fact more than half of the NYC metro area are showing declining price trends.
The Trulia Price and Rent Monitors rely on the latest asking price or rent rather than the original to better track the direction of the market. Prices on MOM, QOQ and YOY on based on a 3 month moving average. Here’s the nitty gritty. Love the “technical” and “non-technical” FAQ notes detailing how it works.
Note: I have been on the Trulia Industry Advisory Board since its inception in 2006.
- Trulia Price Monitor Is Launched: New (Better) Way To Look At Housing Price Trends [Matrix]
- Rising Home Prices: Coming to a Market Near You [Trulia]
- Trulia Price and Rent Monitors – April 2012 [Trulia]
- Trulia Price and Rent Monitors – FAQ [Trulia]
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 6:00 AM
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Trulia’s Chief Economist Jed Kolko keeps punching out dials and gauges on the housing market. He’s also got a “Price Monitor.” These tools are really growing on me because they provide context to the current state of the market – something that is sorely missing.
With his Housing Barometer, he combines three key housing market indicators:
- new construction starts (Census)
- existing-home sales (NAR)
- the delinquency-plus-foreclosure rate (LPS First Look).
Here’s the full write up: Trulia’s Housing Barometer: Recovery Slips Backward in March
and constantly asks:
What does a “normal” housing market look like, and how far away are we?
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 5, 2012, 2:02 PM
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[click to open press release]
One of my issues with existing national price indices (I have many) has been that they reflect what happened after the fact. That in and of it self is not a bad thing at all. The problem concerns their use by the consumer and media. They rely on them and often have no idea of the severity of the trend lag (as much as 6 months). This lag is interpreted as the current market and then they proceed to mischaracterize or misunderstand what’s actually happening in housing right now.
Jed Kolko, the Trulia’s chief economist has come up with what looks to be a much better way to look at the direction of housing prices by following list price trends which lead home price trends by several months. He’s also created The Trulia Rent Monitor which addresses the same issues on the rental market. Both reports are based on what Trulia does well, aggregating and managing listing information by the boatload.
Trulia Price and Rent Monitors – March 2012 Download
The Trulia Price and Rent Monitors rely on the latest asking price or rent rather than the original to better track the direction of the market. Prices on MOM, QOQ and YOY on based on a 3 month moving average. Here’s the nitty gritty. Love the “technical” and “non-technical” FAQ notes detailing how it works. Jed is very clear that this is not a way to “game” the existing indices like Case Shiller and predict them in advance of their release (aka accurately predict what a 4-6 month old index result will be tomorrow) which serves an entirely different purpose I suppose.
I thought it was particularly interesting that some speculative and depressed markets are showing the most upside swing – i.e. Detroit, Miami, Phoenix. CA still weak throughout. The NYC metro results are consistent with what we are seeing throughout the region, prices down 3.3% YOY and rents are up 6.2% YOY.
From the press release, the Trulia Price Monitor for March 2012 shows:
- Asking prices up 1.4% quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted. This is the first clear indication of a national home-price turnaround. Unadjusted for seasonality, prices were up 2.4%.
- Asking prices up 0.9% in March and 0.6% in February, month-over-month, after bottoming in January 2012.
- Strong year-on-year increases in asking prices throughout Florida, and year-on-year price declines throughout California.
The Trulia Rent Monitor for March 2012 shows:
- Rents up 5.0% year-over-year.
- Rent increases in nearly all large metros, especially metros with faster job growth.
Note: I have been on the Trulia Industry Advisory Board since its inception in 2006.
- Why US Housing Indices Make Terrible Investment Benchmarks [Matrix]
- Asking Prices on the Rise as Housing Recovery Expands [Trulia]
- Trulia Price and Rent Monitors – March 2012 [Trulia]
- Trulia Price and Rent Monitors – FAQ [Trulia]
